气候变化对北方农牧交错带界线变迁影响的定量探测方法研究（英文）

发布时间：2018-04-11 13:28

本文选题：farming-pastoral + ecotone(FPE)　；参考：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2017年09期

【摘要】：The quantitative effect of climate change on fragile regions has been a hot topic in the field of responses to climate change. Previous studies have qualitatively documented the impacts of climate change on boundary shifts in the farming-pastoral ecotone(FPE); however, the quantitative methods for detecting climate contributions remain relatively limited. Based on long-term data of meteorological stations and interpretations of land use since 1970, climate and land use boundaries of the 1970 s, 1980 s, 1990 s and 2000 s were delineated. To detect climate contributions to the FPE boundary shifts, we developed two quantitative methods to explore the spatial-temporal pattern of climate and land use boundary at the east-west(or south-north)(Fish Net method) and transect directions(Digital Shoreline Analysis System, DSAS method). The results indicated that significant differences were exhibited in climate boundaries, land use boundaries, as well as climate contributions in different regions during different periods. The northwest FPE had smaller variations, while the northeast FPE had greater shifts. In the northwest part of the southeast fringe of the Greater Hinggan Mountains and the Inner Mongolian Plateau, the shifts of climate boundaries were significantly related to the land use boundaries. The climate contributions at an east-west direction ranged from 10.7% to 44.4%, and those at a south-north direction varied from 4.7% to 55.9%. The majority of the results from the DSAS were consistent with those from the Fish Net. The DSAS method is more accurate and suitable for precise detection at a small scale, whereas the Fish Net method is simple to conduct statistical analysis rapidly and directly at a large scale. Our research will be helpful to adapt to climate change, to develop the productive potential, as well as to protect the environment of the FPE in northern China.
[Abstract]:The quantitative effect of climate change on fragile regions has been a hot topic in the field of responses to climate change. Previous studies have qualitatively documented the impacts of climate change on boundary shifts in the farming-pastoral ecotone(FPE); however, the quantitative methods for detecting climate contributions remain relatively limited. Based on long-term data of meteorological stations and interpretations of land use since 1970, climate and land use boundaries of the 1970 s, 1980 s, 1990 s and 2000 s were delineated. To detect climate contributions to the FPE boundary shifts, we developed two quantitative methods to explore the spatial-temporal pattern of climate and land use boundary at the east-west(or south-north)(Fish Net method) and transect directions(Digital Shoreline Analysis System, DSAS method). The results indicated that significant differences were exhibited in climate boundaries, land use boundaries, as well as climate contributions in different regions during different periods. The northwest FPE had smaller variations, while the northeast FPE had greater shifts. In the northwest part of the southeast fringe of the Greater Hinggan Mountains and the Inner Mongolian Plateau, the shifts of climate boundaries were significantly related to the land use boundaries. The climate contributions at an east-west direction ranged from 10.7% to 44.4%, and those at a south-north direction varied from 4.7% to 55.9%. The majority of the results from the DSAS were consistent with those from the Fish Net. The DSAS method is more accurate and suitable for precise detection at a small scale, whereas the Fish Net method is simple to conduct statistical analysis rapidly and directly at a large scale. Our research will be helpful to adapt to climate change, to develop the productive potential, as well as to protect the environment of the FPE in northern China.
【作者单位】： Key
【基金】：National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41401113,No.41371002 Foundation of Excellent Young Talents of IGSNRR,CAS,No.2016RC201 The Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,No.OFSLRSS201622 The Key Project of Physical Geography of Hebei Province China Scholarship Council
【分类号】：S162

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