未来30年川东平行岭谷区县域农田SOC动态模拟

发布时间：2018-04-12 11:10

本文选题：农田土壤 + 土壤有机碳　；参考：《中国生态农业学报》2017年12期

【摘要】：以位于川东平行岭谷的典型县——垫江县为研究对象,探讨在特定气候模式下未来30 a研究区农田土壤有机碳(SOC)及其动态变化,为研究区未来耕地可持续利用与管理提供数据支持和科学依据。利用生物地球化学模型DNDC,选取IPCC AR4报告中的BCCR_BCM 2.0的B1模式,在基于研究区土壤性质和农业管理制度等建立的GIS区域数据库的支持下,模拟研究区2011—2041年SOC动态变化。结果表明:1)DNDC模型能够较好地模拟特定气候条件下SOC及其动态变化,模拟值和观测值的相关系数r为0.981,达到0.01水平下的极显著相关关系;模拟值和观测值的RMSE值为16%,模拟结果较好。2)未来30 a研究区农田0~20 cm土层SOC密度和储量均呈显著增加态势,单位面积碳增量2 637.07~8 091.55 kg(C)·hm~(-2),增幅为10%~34%,新增固碳量2.7×10~5~8.3×10~5 t,年均增速87.9~269.7 kg(C)·hm~(-2)·a~(-1)。3)未来30 a川东平行区县域农田土壤总体呈持续碳增汇状态,研究区固碳、丢碳以及相对平衡三者间的差异将逐渐凸显。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a typical county, Dianjiang County, located in the parallel Ridge Valley of East Sichuan Province, was used to study the soil organic carbon (SOC) and its dynamic changes in the future 30 years under a specific climate model.To provide data support and scientific basis for the future sustainable use and management of cultivated land in the study area.Using the biogeochemical model DNC, the B1 model of BCCR_BCM 2.0 in the IPCC AR4 report was selected to simulate the SOC dynamic changes in the study area from 2011 to 2041 with the support of the GIS regional database based on the soil properties and agricultural management system of the study area.The results show that the SOC and its dynamic change can be well simulated by the 1: 1 DNDC model. The correlation coefficient between the simulated value and the observed value is 0.981, which is very significant at the level of 0. 01.The RMSE value of simulated value and observed value is 16, the result of simulation is better. 2) in the next 30 years, the density and reserve of SOC in 0 ~ 20 cm soil layer of farmland in the study area will increase significantly.The difference between carbon loss and relative balance will gradually become prominent.
【作者单位】：重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院/三峡库区地表过程与环境遥感重庆市重点实验室;
【基金】：重庆市基础科学与前沿技术研究专项(cstc2017jcyj B0317)资助~~
【分类号】：S153.6

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