西北干旱区农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长的响应关系

发布时间：2018-04-12 14:18

本文选题：西北干旱区 + 农地利用　；参考：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年04期

【摘要】：[目的]试图找出我国西北干旱区农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长之间的关系,以期为制定该地区农地利用碳减排政策提供理论支撑。[方法]测算西北干旱区"九五"至"十二五"期间农地利用的碳排放量,采用"Tapio脱钩"理论探究农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长的响应关系,并运用LMDI模型分析了农地利用碳排放的影响因素,继而对农地利用碳排放零增长的时间节点进行了预测。[结果]西北干旱区农地碳排放呈现"快速增长-缓慢增长"两阶段变化特征,其碳排放强度变化轨迹与此基本一致;农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长间响应关系显著,以弱脱钩效应为主;农地利用碳排放的驱动因子中,农业生产效率因素、劳动力因素对农地利用碳减排的成效最为明显,农业产业结构因素对农地利用碳减排略有促进作用,而农业经济发展因素是促进碳排放的主要因素。[结论]西北干旱区有望在2017年实现农地利用碳排放的零增长,虽在短期内可能实现农地利用碳排放的零增长,但农业收入在农户家庭收入中仍占较大比重,农业碳减排压力依然较大。
[Abstract]:[objective] to find out the relationship between carbon emissions from agricultural land use and agricultural economic growth in arid areas of northwest China, in order to provide theoretical support for the formulation of carbon abatement policies for farmland use in this region.[methods] carbon emissions from farmland use in Northwest Arid region during the period of "Ninth Five-Year Plan" to "12th Five-Year Plan" were calculated, and the response relationship between carbon emissions from farmland use and agricultural economic growth was explored by using "Tapio decoupling" theory.LMDI model is used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission in farmland, and then the time node of zero increase of carbon emission in farmland is forecasted.[results] the carbon emissions of agricultural land in the arid region of northwest China showed the characteristics of "rapid growth and slow growth", and the change track of carbon emission intensity was basically consistent with this, and the response relationship between carbon emissions from farmland use and agricultural economic growth was significant.Among the driving factors of carbon emission in farmland utilization, the factors of agricultural production efficiency and labor force have the most obvious effect on carbon abatement of farmland utilization, and the agricultural industrial structure factor has a little promoting effect on carbon abatement of farmland utilization.And agricultural economy development factor is the main factor that promotes carbon emission.[conclusion] the northwest arid region is expected to achieve zero increase in carbon emissions from farmland use in 2017. Although it may be possible to achieve zero increase in carbon emissions from agricultural land use in the short term, agricultural income still accounts for a large proportion of household income.Agricultural carbon abatement pressure is still greater.
【作者单位】：兵团屯垦经济研究中心;石河子大学经济与管理学院;江南大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“新疆棉田白色污染治理机制研究”(71563040) 新疆维吾尔自治区普通高校人文社科重点研究基地项目“新疆棉田白色污染综合治理效果评价及对策研究”(XJEDU020215C05) 石河子大学农业现代化研究中心项目“棉农对农田白色污染治理的认知程度及支付意愿调查研究”(NYXDH1503);“石河子大学农林经济管理博士后流动站”资助
【分类号】：F321.1;F327;X71

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