基于DSSAT模型模拟高低温灾害对荆州市中稻产量的影响及对策

发布时间：2018-04-16 11:06

本文选题：高温热害 + DSSAT模型　；参考：《江西农业大学学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：为筛选出湖北省荆州市中稻种植的最适播期,利用DSSAT模型评估荆州市中稻生长季内高温和低温灾害发生变化规律及高温灾害对水稻产量的影响,拟通过播期调整降低该区域水稻生产的高低温灾害风险。采用DSSAT 4.5模型和近36年来逐日气象资料对1971—2006年荆州市中稻的高低温灾害风险及高温对产量的影响进行定量化评估,并确定该区域中稻种植的最适播期。结果表明,与1971—1986年相比较,1987—2006年荆州市中稻种植的发生热害与冷害的频率有增大趋势,而且受气候变化的影响,中稻有减产趋势;相比较1971—2006年7个播期的减产率以及原始模拟产量与调整模拟产量,最适播期选择在4月20—25日可一定程度上避开中稻在孕穗—扬花期遇到高温热害。在全球变暖的背景下,荆州市中稻最适播期为4月20—25日可有效避开中稻孕穗—扬花期的高温影响,为该区域中稻抗避高温栽培提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:In order to select the optimum sowing time for middle rice planting in Jingzhou, Hubei province, the variation of high and low temperature disasters during growing season and the effect of high temperature disaster on rice yield were evaluated by DSSAT model.It is proposed to reduce the risk of high and low temperature disaster of rice production in this region through sowing time adjustment.Using DSSAT 4.5 model and daily meteorological data in recent 36 years, the risk of high and low temperature disaster and the effect of high temperature on yield of middle rice in Jingzhou City from 1971 to 2006 were quantitatively evaluated, and the optimum sowing time of middle rice planting in this area was determined.The results showed that, compared with 1971-1986, the frequency of heat and chilling damage of middle rice planting in Jingzhou City from 1987 to 2006 was increasing, and it was affected by climate change, and there was a tendency to reduce the yield of medium rice.Compared with the yield reduction rate of 7 sowing dates from 1971 to 2006 and the original simulated yield and the adjustment of simulated yield, the optimum sowing date was 20 to 25 April to avoid the high temperature heat damage of middle rice in booting and flowering stage to some extent.Under the background of global warming, the optimum sowing date of middle rice in Jingzhou city is April 20-25, which can effectively avoid the effect of high temperature on booting and flowering stage of middle rice, and provide a reference for the cultivation of resistance to high temperature in this region.
【作者单位】：长江大学农学院/主要粮食作物产业化湖北省协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAK19B06-03) 国家自然科学基金项目(31270488,31501274) 主要粮食作物产业化湖北省协同创新中心开放基金项目(2015MS001)~~
【分类号】：S42;S511.32

【相似文献】