气候变化对中国轮作系统影响的研究进展

发布时间：2018-04-19 09:01

本文选题：气候变化 + 轮作系统　；参考：《中国农业气象》2017年10期

【摘要】：轮作耕作方式在提高土地利用率和单位面积作物产量方面发挥了不可替代的作用,加强气候变化对轮作系统影响的理解,揭示其对气候变化的响应规律,是促进轮作生产体系有效应对和适应气候变化的关键。本文梳理了气候变化对轮作系统影响的研究成果和不足,总结当前常用研究手段(作物模型、统计和试验方法)的优缺点,从作物生长发育、种植布局、种植效益、种植风险4个方面阐述了气候变化对轮作系统产生的影响,并对现有的适应性措施以及今后研究重点进行分析,以期为全面深入评估气候变化对轮作系统的影响,以及未来轮作系统的研究和发展提供一定参考和借鉴。已有研究结果表明,气候变化已经影响,而且还将继续影响轮作系统。尽管因研究的时空尺度、方法及轮作模式的不同,研究结果还存在一定差异,但大部分研究表明,在宏观层面上,气候变暖,热量资源增加,使得研究区轮作系统种植界限发生明显北移,导致不同轮作系统的作物布局及种植面积发生改变。微观角度上,气温升高加快了轮作系统内部作物生育进程,导致作物产量下降,也为系统内品种更换提供了可能。热量资源的变化,还导致轮作系统内部所遭遇的气象灾害规律发生变化,传统意义上的低温灾害事件将减少,但是种植界限变动的敏感区内新的低温灾害事件以及极端高温事件则有增加的趋势,从而增加了轮作系统高产、稳产及可持续发展的风险。生产中,通过改变作物布局,选用生育期更长的品种,以及优化管理措施等,可以在一定程度上减缓气候变化对轮作系统的不利影响。但是,由于气候变化和轮作系统的复杂性和多样性,目前研究还存在一定的不足,今后还需结合多种研究手段,开展气候变化对轮作系统影响的机理性、综合性以及系统性研究,提高研究的深度、广度、精度和准确度,以促进和保障其可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Crop rotation plays an irreplaceable role in increasing land use efficiency and crop yield per unit area. The understanding of the effects of climate change on rotation system is enhanced, and its response to climate change is revealed.It is the key to promote the rotation production system to deal with and adapt to climate change effectively.This paper reviews the research results and shortcomings of climate change impacts on crop rotation systems, summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of current research methods (crop models, statistics and test methods), including crop growth and development, planting layout, planting benefits.The impacts of climate change on crop rotation systems are described in four aspects of planting risk, and the existing adaptive measures and future research priorities are analyzed, with a view to providing a comprehensive and in-depth assessment of the impacts of climate change on crop rotation systems.And the future research and development of rotation system to provide certain reference and reference.Previous studies have shown that climate change has and will continue to affect crop rotation systems.Although there are still some differences in the results of the studies due to the differences in space-time scales, methods and rotation models, most studies show that, at the macro level, the climate is warming and the heat resources are increasing.The crop distribution and planting area of different rotation systems are changed because of the obvious northward shift of planting boundary in the rotation system in the study area.From the microcosmic point of view, the increase of temperature speeds up the process of crop growth and growth within the rotation system, which leads to the decrease of crop yield, and also provides the possibility for the variety replacement in the system.The change of heat resources also leads to changes in the regularity of meteorological disasters encountered within the rotation system, and the number of low-temperature disasters in the traditional sense will be reduced.However, the new low temperature disaster events and extreme high temperature events in sensitive areas with varying planting boundaries have an increasing trend, thus increasing the risk of high yield, stable yield and sustainable development of crop rotation system.In production, the adverse effects of climate change on crop rotation system can be alleviated to some extent by changing crop distribution, selecting varieties with longer growth period and optimizing management measures.However, due to the complexity and diversity of climate change and crop rotation systems, there are still some deficiencies in current research. In the future, it is necessary to develop the mechanism of climate change impacts on crop rotation systems by combining various research methods.Comprehensive and systematic research to improve the depth, breadth, accuracy and accuracy of research to promote and ensure its sustainable development.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“气候变化下我国粮食产量增速放缓的驱动机制及适应潜力研究”(41471074) 国家自然基金面上项目“我国麦-玉轮作复种体系对气候变化的适应机制及适应技术集成的模拟研究”(41171093)
【分类号】：S162;S344.1

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