里下河平原湖区农田涝灾风险评估——以高邮市运东地区为例

发布时间：2018-04-22 04:19

本文选题：里下河平原 + 农田涝灾　；参考：《排灌机械工程学报》2017年10期

【摘要】：为研究江苏里下河平原湖区涝灾风险并提出应对策略,以高邮运东地区为例,采用综合评价法构建了农田涝灾风险评估模型,并分析了现状和不同措施下各个圩垸的农田涝灾综合风险度.该模型考虑了致灾因子、孕灾环境、抗灾能力和承灾体脆弱性4个方面的影响因素,其中致灾因子包括梅雨强度,孕灾环境包括相对地形高程、高程相对标准差、滞涝水面率和产流能力,抗灾能力受堤防挡水能力、排水河道密度和泵站抽排能力3个指标的影响,承灾体脆弱性通过规划排涝模数指标反映,采用层次分析法确定各指标权重.结果表明:现状条件下该区域只能应对3 a一遇梅雨,当遭遇20 a一遇梅雨时,84.37%的区域处于高风险.将滞涝水面率提高到20%,同时将泵站抽排流量和堤防高度提高到规划水平,可以保证该区域能够应对10 a一遇以下梅雨强度的涝灾,在遭遇20 a一遇梅雨时,高风险面积比例控制在10.29%.
[Abstract]:In order to study the risk of waterlogging disaster in the lake area of Lixiahe Plain in Jiangsu Province and put forward some countermeasures, a comprehensive evaluation method was used to construct a model for evaluating the risk of waterlogging disaster in farmland. At the same time, the comprehensive risk of farmland waterlogging is analyzed under the present situation and different measures. In this model, four factors are considered, such as disaster causing factors, disaster environment, disaster resilience and vulnerability of disaster bearing body. The disaster factors include Meiyu intensity, disaster environment including relative topographic elevation and relative standard deviation of elevation. The waterlogging water surface rate, the capacity of runoff production and the ability to resist disasters are affected by the water retaining capacity of levees, the density of drainage channels and the pumping capacity of pumping stations. The vulnerability of the disaster bearing bodies is reflected by the planning and drainage modulus index. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weight of each index. The results show that the region can only cope with Meiyu once in 3 years, and 84.37% of the area is at high risk when it encounters Meiyu once in 20 years. Raising the waterlogging water surface rate to 20 percent, and raising the pumping discharge and levee height of the pumping station to the planned level, can ensure that the area can cope with flooding with the intensity of the following plum rain once in 10 years, and in the case of a Meiyu once in 20 years, The proportion of high risk area is controlled at 10.29.
【作者单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室;国家节水灌溉北京工程技术研究中心;武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;江苏省高邮市水务局;
【基金】：国家“十三五”重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0403205) 中国水利水电科学研究院青年专项(节基本科研KY1760) 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(2015NSG01)
【分类号】：S422

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