未来气候情景下冬小麦潜在北移区农业气候资源变化特征

发布时间：2018-04-22 07:17

本文选题：RCP. + 冬小麦　；参考：《气候变化研究进展》2017年03期

【摘要】：基于区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出的RCP4.5气候情景数据分析表明,相较于1981—2010年,至2071—2097年冬小麦种植北界将平均向北移动147.8 km,北移面积约1.86×10~5 km~2。选取代表光、温、水资源的9项农业气候资源指标,探究未来情景下,2021—2097年冬小麦潜在北移区内农业气候资源变化特征,结果表明:(1)相较于基准时段(1961—1990年),未来潜在北移区内光照资源变化呈减少趋势;热量资源呈明显增加趋势,在21世纪末的30年,波动性加大;降水资源整体增加趋势不明显,但波动性亦呈现增大趋势。(2)未来潜在北移区内,2030T(2021—2050年)、2050T(2041—2070年)和2070T(2061—2090年)时段光照资源在研究区域的东北部减少幅度较大,而在西南部较小;热量资源在研究区域的北部增加比南部明显;降水资源则主要在研究区域的东北部增加明显。
[Abstract]:The analysis of RCP4.5 climate scenarios based on the regional climate model system (PRECIS) shows that, compared with 1981-2010, the northern boundary of winter wheat cultivation will move 147.8 km to the north, and the northward migration area will be about 1.86 脳 10 ~ 5 km / m ~ (2) by 2071-2097. Nine agroclimatic resource indexes representing light, temperature and water resources were selected to study the change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in the potential northward migration area of winter wheat from 2021-2097 in the future. The results show that compared with the reference period (1961-1990), the variation of light resources in the potential northward migration areas will decrease, the heat resources will increase obviously, and the fluctuation will increase in 30 years at the end of the 21st century. The increasing trend of precipitation resources as a whole was not obvious, but the fluctuation also showed an increasing trend. (2) in the future potential northward migration area, 2030T / 2021-2021-2050 and 2050T / 2041-2070) and 2070T(2061-2090), the light resources decreased greatly in the northeast of the study area. In the southwest, the heat resources increased more obviously in the north than in the south, and the precipitation resources mainly increased in the northeast of the study area.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAC09B04) 948计划重点项目(2011-G9)
【分类号】：S162.3;S512.11

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