长江中下游地区一季稻高温热害风险评估与区划

发布时间：2018-04-25 05:31

本文选题：高温热害 + ORYZA2000　；参考：《南京信息工程大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：水稻在农业生产中具有举足轻重的地位,而水稻对高温热害具有较高敏感性,加之全球气候变暖使得高温热害形势更为严峻,因此进行一季稻高温热害风险评估具有重要的现实意义,为未来农业生产中水稻栽培管理、防灾减灾提供科学依据。选用长江中下游地区气象站天气资料、农气站一季稻资料、HWSD土壤数据库资料。根据一季稻抽穗开花期高温热害的等级指标,统计逐站逐年各强度发生频率,利用ArcGIS分析高温热害空间分布,采用小波分析法分析高温热害周期规律；设定有无抽穗开花期高温热害两种天气方案,使用ORYZA2000水稻模型提取灾损率,进而根据灾害风险评估模型计算风险度,利用ArcGIS完成风险评估与区划。主要研究结果如下：(1)一季稻高温热害发生频率的时空特征。全区域内陆多沿海少,多发地区：湖北中西部及东部、湖南中西部及中北部、安徽中西部。高温热害发生频率的分布面积为轻度中度重度。总、轻、中、重度高温热害发生频率最高年代分别为60s、OOs、60s、60s,增幅最大年代分别为90s、90s、00s、60s。28a为高温热害频率的第一主周期,该时间尺度的高温热害频率呈“多-少-多”的周期变化,2013年后将减少。(2)不同发育时段或时长的水稻高温热害统计,对其发生规律的研究结果有一定影响。本文界定1961—.2013年逐站一季稻抽穗开花期,最频发区为湖北西北部、东南部、中西部及东部。(3)一季稻高温热害灾损率高值地区：江苏省宿迁南部、淮安南部,浙江省绍兴、金华及台州三市交界处,浙江省杭州西南部、衢州西北部,安徽省黄山,湖南省怀化南部。灾损率高值区随五个年代的移动趋势：江苏中部→湖南中北部→湖南中北部及西南部→浙江中部及湖北西南部→浙江中部→安徽东南部。90年代以后灾损率波动幅度减小,且值略有下降。(4)一季稻高温热害风险度高值地区：安徽省六安西北部、六安与安庆交界处,湖北省孝感西部、仙桃、荆门东部及中南部,咸宁西北部,湖南省常德、益阳、岳阳三市交界处。
[Abstract]:Rice plays an important role in agricultural production, and rice is highly sensitive to high temperature heat damage, and global warming makes the situation of high temperature heat damage more severe. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to assess the risk of high-temperature heat damage in one-cropping rice, and to provide scientific basis for rice cultivation management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the future agricultural production. The weather data of meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the HWSD soil database data of the first cropping rice in the agricultural gas station were selected. According to the grade index of high temperature heat damage in heading and flowering stage of first cropping rice, the frequency of high temperature heat damage was calculated year by year, the spatial distribution of high temperature heat damage was analyzed by ArcGIS, and the cycle law of high temperature heat damage was analyzed by wavelet analysis. Two weather schemes with or without high temperature heat damage in heading and flowering period were set up, and ORYZA2000 rice model was used to extract the disaster loss rate, and then the risk degree was calculated according to the disaster risk assessment model, and the risk assessment and regionalization were completed by ArcGIS. The main results are as follows: 1) temporal and spatial characteristics of the frequency of high temperature heat damage in rice. The whole region has more and less coastal areas: central-west and eastern Hubei, central-central Hunan and central-north, central-west Anhui. The distribution area of the frequency of hyperthermia was mild, moderate and severe. The highest frequency of total, light, moderate and severe high temperature heat damage occurred in 60 s, and the maximum increase period was 90 sg, 90 sm, 60 s. 28a, respectively, which was the first main period of the frequency of high temperature heat damage. The frequency of high temperature heat damage in this time scale shows a period of "more less than more", and will be reduced after 2013. (2) the statistics of high temperature heat damage in rice with different developmental periods or duration have certain influence on the results of the research on the occurrence of the high temperature heat damage. In this paper, we define the flowering period of one-season rice from 1961 to 2013. The most frequent areas are northwest, southeast, middle and eastern part of Hubei, and high value areas of high temperature and heat damage of one season rice: southern Suqian, southern Huaian, Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, Jiangsu Province, southern Huai'an, and Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province. The junction of Jinhua and Taizhou, southwest of Hangzhou, northwest of Quzhou, Huangshan of Anhui Province, southern Huaihua of Hunan Province. The high value region of disaster loss rate moves with the trend of five decades: the range of fluctuation of disaster loss rate in the middle of Jiangsu Province and in the middle and southwest of Hunan Province and in the middle of Zhejiang Province and in the southwest of Hubei Province and in the southeast of Anhui Province decreases after the 1990s. And the value decreased slightly. 4) the high risk area of high temperature heat damage of rice in one season: northwest of Anhui Province, junction of Liu'an and Anqing, west of Xiaogan, Xiantao, east and south of Jingmen, northwest of Xianning, Changde, Yiyang of Hunan Province, Yueyang three cities at the junction.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S511;S42

【参考文献】