我国农业面源污染的时空分异与动态演进

发布时间：2018-05-01 02:38

本文选题：农业面源污染 + 空间相关性　；参考：《中国农业大学学报》2017年07期

【摘要】：为了准确把握我国农业面源污染的空间分布规律,有效治理农业面源污染。选取1997—2013年中国30个省市面板数据,分析了我国农业面源污染的时间、空间分布特征,利用非参数核密度估计模型讨论了农业面源污染的动态演进情况,进一步利用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)讨论了其空间相关性。结果表明:1)农业化肥投入、农业固体废弃物(秸秆)、水产养殖和畜禽养殖这四类污染源的产生量以及他们产生的氮、磷和化学需氧量三类污染物逐年增长,其中畜禽养殖的贡献最大。2)农业面源污染严重的区域集中在农业大省和经济发达地区,在空间上以中部地区、华北地区为核心区域,向外围辐射并呈现递减趋势。3)农业面源污染区域明显集聚,区域差异较大,极化现象比较严重。4)农业面源污染表现出明显的空间相关性,形成高高型集聚区域,主要位于农业大省。据此,应该加强政策激励和引导农业农户的环保意识,推进农业生产由农业粗放式增长向数量、质量型增长转变。考虑相邻区域政策等要素空间溢出的负效应,在高高型集聚区域内,应该采用区域联防政策,杜绝农业面源污染治理的此消彼长,通过齐抓共管,实现多赢。
[Abstract]:In order to accurately grasp the spatial distribution of agricultural non-point source pollution in China and effectively control agricultural non-point source pollution. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1997 to 2013, the temporal and spatial distribution of agricultural non-point source pollution is analyzed, and the dynamic evolution of agricultural non-point source pollution is discussed by using the nonparametric kernel density estimation model. Furthermore, the spatial correlation is discussed by using exploratory spatial data analysis method (ESDA). The results showed that the agricultural fertilizer input, agricultural solid waste (straw straw, aquaculture and livestock breeding) and the nitrogen, phosphorus and chemical oxygen demand (COD) of the four pollution sources increased year by year. Among them, the contribution of livestock and poultry breeding is greatest. 2) the regions with serious agricultural non-point source pollution are concentrated in large agricultural provinces and economically developed areas. In space, the central region and the North China region are the core areas. Radiation to the periphery and decreasing trend. 3) agglomeration of agricultural non-point source pollution is obvious, regional difference is great, polarization phenomenon is relatively serious. 4) agricultural non-point source pollution shows obvious spatial correlation and forms high type agglomeration area. Mainly located in major agricultural provinces. Therefore, we should strengthen the policy to stimulate and guide agricultural farmers' awareness of environmental protection, and promote the transformation of agricultural production from extensive agricultural growth to quantitative and qualitative growth. Considering the negative effects of spatial spillover of factors such as adjacent regional policies, in the high agglomeration area, we should adopt the policy of regional joint prevention to put an end to the rise and fall of agricultural non-point source pollution control.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;池州学院商学院;华中农业大学经济管理学院/湖北农村发展研究中心;
【基金】：安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2014A177) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71273103);国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(NSFC-CGIAR,71461010701)
【分类号】：X71

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