不同时间尺度下华北平原干湿气候时空变化及成因分析

发布时间：2018-05-03 15:35

本文选题：华北平原 + 参考作物蒸散量　；参考：《中国农业气象》2017年05期

【摘要】：利用华北平原62个气象站点1961-2014年逐日地面观测资料以及同期降水量资料,基于Penman-Monteith方法计算的参考作物蒸散量(ET_0)研究近54a研究区干湿气候时空变化特征,并利用敏感性和贡献率法分析气候变化背景下主要气象因子对ET_0的影响,对干湿气候变化的成因进行探讨。结果表明:华北平原在3个时间段(时段1:1961-1980;时段2:1981-2000;时段3:2001-2014)半干旱区和半湿润区的分界线呈东扩和南移,半干旱区面积不断扩大,湿润区面积变化不明显;研究区1961-2014年ET_0呈显著下降趋势,空间差异大,河南和山东部分地区由于ET_0下降趋势大于降水量减少趋势,气候变湿润;鲁东、天津、河北东部地区降水量减少且ET_0增加,干旱化趋势明显。就月尺度而言,降水量在7月和8月减少幅度最大,夏季ET_0减少幅度较大,5月和6月气候呈变湿趋势。ET_0对相对湿度的变化最敏感,各月导致ET_0变化的主要贡献因子不一,11月-翌年1月风速起主导作用,2月温度为主导因子,6-9月日照时数为主导因子,其它月份为相对湿度、风速等综合作用的结果。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily surface observation data of 62 meteorological stations in North China Plain from 1961 to 2014 and the precipitation data of the same period, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of dry and wet climate in the study area in recent 54 years were studied by using the reference crop evapotranspiration (et _ 0) calculated by Penman-Monteith method. The effects of main meteorological factors on ET_0 under the background of climate change were analyzed by using sensitivity and contribution rate method, and the causes of dry-wet climate change were discussed. The results show that the dividing line between semi-arid area and sub-humid area is eastward and southward in three periods (1: 1961-1980; 2: 1981-2000; 3: 2001-2014). From 1961 to 2014, the ET_0 of the study area showed a significant downward trend, with great spatial difference. Due to the decreasing trend of ET_0 is larger than the decreasing trend of precipitation in Henan and Shandong, the climate became humid, and the precipitation decreased and the ET_0 increased in Ludong, Tianjin and eastern Hebei. The trend of drought is obvious. In terms of monthly scale, the precipitation decreased the most in July and August, and the decrease of ET_0 in summer was larger. The climate of May and June showed a trend of humidification. ETS0 was the most sensitive to the change of relative humidity. The main contributing factors to the change of ET_0 varied from November to January, from June to September, and from relative humidity to wind speed.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学资源与环境学院;农业部武川农业环境科学观测实验站;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300106;2016YFD0300105) 国家自然科学基金项目(41271053)
【分类号】：S162

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