气候变化对新疆酿酒葡萄种植气候区划的影响

发布时间：2018-05-05 03:13

本文选题：气候变化 + 地理信息系统(GIS)　；参考：《中国农业资源与区划》2016年09期

【摘要】：研究气候变化背景下新疆酿酒葡萄种植气候区划的变化,对适应气候变化,科学制定新疆酿酒葡萄发展规划,促进新疆葡萄酒产业的持续稳定发展具有重要意义。利用新疆101个气象站1961~2014年的历史气候资料,使用线性趋势分析、累积距平和t-检验以及基于Arc GIS的混合插值法,在对近54年新疆无霜冻期、4~9月干燥度指数和大风日数时空变化进行分析的基础上,结合酿酒葡萄种植气候区划指标,对气候变化背景下新疆酿酒葡萄种植气候区划的变化进行了分析。研究结果表明:新疆无霜冻期表现为"南疆长,北疆短;平原和盆地长,山区短"、4~9月干燥度为"平原和盆地大,山区小"、4~9月大风日数呈现"北疆多,南疆少;东部和西部多,中部少;峡谷和山口地带多,平原地区少"的空间分布特点。近54年,新疆无霜冻期总体以3.57d/10a的倾向率呈显著(α=0.001)增多趋势,并于1997年发生了突变。4~9月干燥度和大风日数分别以-0.40/10a和-3.10d/10a的倾向率呈显著(α=0.001)减小(少)趋势,且分别于1987年和1986年发生了突变。受其影响,1997年后较其之前,新疆酿酒葡萄最适宜种植区减小了6.201万km~2,占比减小3.7个百分点;适宜种植区增大了25.63万km~2,占比增大15.4个百分点;次适宜种植区和不宜种植区分别缩小了7.432万km~2和11.99万km~2,占比分别减小4.4和7.2个百分点。气候变化对新疆酿酒葡萄种植的影响既有利也有弊,但总体来说利大于弊。适宜区面积明显扩大,次适宜和不适宜区面积明显减小,这对促进新疆酿酒葡萄种植业以及葡萄酒产业发展具有重要意义,但最适宜种植区面积略有减小又会产生一定不利影响。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to study the climate regionalization of wine grape planting in Xinjiang under the background of climate change, to adapt to climate change, to scientifically formulate the development plan of wine grape in Xinjiang, and to promote the sustainable and stable development of wine industry in Xinjiang. Using the historical climatic data of 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2014, using linear trend analysis, cumulative distance peace t- test and mixed interpolation method based on Arc GIS, Based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal changes of dry index and gale days during the frost-free period of Xinjiang in recent 54 years, the climatic regionalization index of wine grape planting was combined. The climatic regionalization of wine grape planting in Xinjiang was analyzed under the background of climate change. The results show that the frost-free period of Xinjiang is "long in the south, short in the north, long in the plain and basin, short in the mountain area" and the dry degree from April to September is "large plain and basin, small mountain area" and the number of windy days in the north Xinjiang is more than that in the southern Xinjiang, and in the east and west, there are more gale days in the north and west of Xinjiang. The middle part is less; the gorge and the mountain pass area are many, the plain area is less "spatial distribution characteristic." In recent 54 years, the tendency of 3.57d/10a increased significantly in the frost-free period of Xinjiang (伪 -0.001), and the trend of sudden change in dry degree from April to September in 1997 was -0.40 / 10a and -3.10d/ 10a, respectively. Mutations occurred in 1987 and 1986, respectively. After 1997, the optimum planting area of wine grape in Xinjiang decreased by 62010 km2 and the proportion decreased by 3.7 percentage points, and the suitable planting area increased by 256300 km2, accounting for 15.4 percentage points. The secondary suitable planting area and the unsuitable planting area were reduced by 74320 km~2 and 119900 km2, respectively, and the proportion of them decreased by 4.4% and 7.2%, respectively. The effects of climate change on wine grape planting in Xinjiang have both advantages and disadvantages, but in general, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. The area of suitable area is obviously expanded, and the area of secondary and unsuitable area is obviously reduced, which is of great significance to promote the development of wine grape planting and wine industry in Xinjiang. However, the area of the most suitable planting area is slightly reduced and will have some adverse effects.
【作者单位】：新疆农业气象台;新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“基于新疆红枣和核桃生理特性变化的越冬冻害指标研究”(41375122) 新疆自治区林业发展补助资金项目“新疆特色林果质量控制发展战略研究”(2016002) 新疆气象局科研课题面上项目“气候变化背景下天山北坡经济带设施农业气候区划”(MS201512)
【分类号】：S663.1;S162.2

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