基于GIS的典型区种植模式生态经济社会适宜度研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 06:00

本文选题：种植模式 + 生态适宜度　；参考：《东华理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：2000年后全球气候变化的趋势越发显著,对于与生态环境息息相关的农业领域来说影响巨大。然而,由于温度的升降、降雨量分布格局的变化在各地区不尽相同,因此,新形势下因地制宜地改变、调整传统种植模式以适应特殊区域气候状况迫在眉睫。本文基于前人的研究成果,构建生态、经济、社会适宜度模型,依托GIS平台作为数据分析、处理工具,在全国范围内筛选高产高效农业区的黑龙江和水资源紧缺区的河北作为研究对象,并充分考虑种植模式调整的地域性特点,开展了种植模式生态经济社会适宜度研究,得到如下研究成果:(1)基于模糊数学方法构建生态适宜度,能较好地贴合作物实际生长需要;选取净产值和纯收益作为经济适宜度衡量指标能快速比较效益高低;采用专家分析筛选主导社会适宜度评判因子能定性分析新模式推广价值及市场前景。(2)黑龙江气候变暖显著影响该区年积温,根据生育期及无霜期天数,选取早、中熟性大麦和荞麦品种构成二熟制模式,结合模型显示雨养条件下大麦-荞麦二熟制在东部沿海的虎林、鸡西地区已可推广,灌溉后最适宜区面积扩大近3倍;同时二熟制不仅利于该区农户增产增收,对优化劳动力布局、丰富种植结构等方面也有显著优势,因此黑龙江部分地区已具备发展二熟制条件。(3)河北由于水资源紧缺急需调整当前农业结构,结合遥感数据GLASS LAI,了解河北农业一熟、二熟制并存,试探讨玉米一熟制替代小麦-玉米二熟制适宜程度及对缓解用水压力的影响。选取中晚熟玉米品种,结合模型发现雨养条件下生态最适宜区主要分布在北部承德、唐山、秦皇岛及北京、天津周边区域,经济效益低于小麦-玉米二熟制,但节水量明显高于后者,有推广前景。增加灌溉能显著提高整体适宜度,但降低了经济效益,增加了用水量,不考虑在灌溉区推广。以上结果显示气候变化对我国农业生产的影响利弊并存,结合生态、经济、社会适宜度研究,为区域农业结构调整提出切实可行的应对方案。本文主要采用Arc GIS栅格插值及叠加分析功能,并充分考虑在强化气候改变条件下带来的优势,对削弱风险方面有积极的作用,使农业效益最大化。
[Abstract]:Since 2000, the trend of global climate change has become more and more significant, which has a great impact on the agricultural field which is closely related to the ecological environment. However, due to the rise and fall of temperature, the change of rainfall distribution pattern is different in different regions. Therefore, it is urgent to adjust the traditional planting pattern to adapt to the climate situation in special regions under the new situation. Based on the previous research results, this paper constructs the ecological, economic and social suitability model, relying on the GIS platform as a data analysis, processing tools, In order to study the ecological, economic and social suitability of planting pattern, Heilongjiang province and Hebei province, which have high yield and high efficiency agricultural area, are selected as the research objects in the whole country, and the regional characteristics of planting pattern adjustment are taken into account. The following research results are obtained: (1) constructing ecological suitability based on fuzzy mathematics method can better meet the actual growth needs of crops, and selecting net output value and net income as indicators of economic suitability can quickly compare benefits; Using expert analysis to screen leading social suitability evaluation factors can qualitatively analyze the new model promotion value and market prospects.) the climate warming in Heilongjiang significantly affects the annual accumulated temperature. According to the days of growth period and frost-free period, early selection can be made. Middle maturity barley and buckwheat varieties constitute two-cropping model. Combined with the model, it shows that barley buckwheat two-cropping system can be popularized in the eastern coastal area of Hulin under the condition of rain, and the area of the most suitable area after irrigation has been expanded nearly three times. At the same time, the two-cropping system is not only conducive to increasing production and income of farmers in this area, but also has significant advantages in optimizing the distribution of labor force, enriching the planting structure, and so on. Therefore, in some areas of Heilongjiang Province, the conditions for the development of the two-cropping system have already been met. Because of the shortage of water resources, Hebei is in urgent need of readjusting the current agricultural structure. Combining with the remote sensing data GLASS Lai, we can understand the coexistence of the first ripeness and the two-ripening system in Hebei. This paper discusses the suitable degree of replacing wheat-corn double cropping system with one-cropping system and its effect on relieving water pressure. In combination with the model, it was found that the most suitable ecological areas were mainly distributed in Chengde, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao and the surrounding areas of Beijing and Tianjin in northern Chengde, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao and Tianjin, and the economic benefit was lower than that in wheat-maize two-cropping system. But the water saving amount is obviously higher than the latter, which has the prospect of popularizing. The increase of irrigation can increase the overall suitability, but reduce the economic benefit and increase the water consumption, so it is not considered to be popularized in the irrigation area. The above results show that the impacts of climate change on China's agricultural production have both advantages and disadvantages. Combining with the study of ecological, economic and social suitability, the paper puts forward a feasible plan for the adjustment of regional agricultural structure. This paper mainly adopts the functions of Arc GIS grid interpolation and superposition analysis, and fully considers the advantages brought by the enhancement of climate change, which has a positive effect on weakening the risk and maximizes the agricultural benefit.
【学位授予单位】：东华理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S181;F326.1

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