黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季的干旱风险

发布时间：2018-05-12 18:39

本文选题：干旱 + 综合风险　；参考：《应用生态学报》2016年05期

【摘要】：干旱是对农业影响最大的农业气象灾害,进行干旱风险评估对于提升区域灾害风险管理和决策水平、减轻农业损失具有重要的指导意义.本文基于自然灾害风险理论,利用黄淮海夏玉米主产区69个站点的气象、夏玉米播种面积和产量数据,以及当地有效灌溉面积等数据,从灾害风险的危险性、脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力4个方面构建风险评估指标和模型,对黄淮海夏玉米主产区干旱灾害的风险进行评估分析.结果表明:黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季(6—9月),干旱发生危险性最大的阶段主要是播种-出苗期和乳熟-成熟期,其中,河北中南部、河南西部和北部的危险性最大.经加权叠加脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力后,夏玉米干旱综合风险最大的地区主要分布在河南西部和西南部部分地区;其次是河南南部、河北沧州、邢台以及山东德州等地,属于次高风险区;风险低值区主要分布在山东南部、安徽北部和河南的信阳等地;其他地区属于中度风险区.
[Abstract]:Drought is the agricultural meteorological disaster with the greatest impact on agriculture. Drought risk assessment plays an important role in improving regional disaster risk management and decision-making level and reducing agricultural losses. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, based on the meteorological data of 69 stations in the main producing area of summer maize in Huanghuai Sea, the data of sowing area and yield of summer maize, and the local effective irrigation area, the risk and vulnerability of the disaster risk are analyzed in this paper. Risk assessment indexes and models were constructed in four aspects of exposure and ability of disaster prevention and mitigation to evaluate and analyze the risk of drought disaster in summer maize production areas of Huanghuai and Huai Hai. The results showed that in the growing season of summer maize in Huang-Huai-Hai area, the most dangerous stage of drought was seed-emergence stage and milk-ripening stage, especially in central and southern Hebei, western Henan and northern Henan. After weighted superposition of vulnerability, exposure and ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, the areas with the greatest comprehensive risk of drought in summer maize are mainly distributed in the western and southwest parts of Henan, followed by southern Henan, Cangzhou, Xingtai, Shandong, Texas, etc. It belongs to the sub-high risk area, the low risk area is mainly distributed in the south of Shandong, the north of Anhui and Xinyang of Henan, and other areas belong to the moderate risk area.
【作者单位】：中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室;河南省气象科学研究所;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006041) 国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD20B04)资助~~
【分类号】：S513;S423

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