气候变化背景下水稻高温热害风险及其对产量的可能影响

发布时间：2018-05-13 08:54

本文选题：水稻 + 高温热害　；参考：《中国农业科学院》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国是世界上最大的水稻生产国,水稻种植面积和总产量分别居世界的第二和第一位。全球气候变暖,极端天气事件增加的背景下,近年来中国大部分地区水稻生长季温度升高,高温热害的强度和频率增加,已经严重影响水稻生产。研究利用1981-2009年水稻观测数据,1961-2010年气象数据和未来2021-2050年RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5气候情景数据,分析过去50a和未来30a中国水稻高温敏感期(孕穗-乳熟)高温热害频率、强度的时空变化情况,并尝试利用1981-2009年水稻高温敏感期高温积温和水稻减产率建立经验回归关系式,评估2021-2050年RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5气候情景下,中国水稻轻、中、重度减产概率的空间分布,以期了解历史和未来近期中国水稻高高温热害风险的变化及其对产量的影响,为合理安排水稻生产,水稻高温减产预估提供科学依据。得到的初步结论如下:1.1961-2010年,中国水稻高温敏感期日最高气温超过35℃持续3d以上的日数(HSD,以下简称高温日数)和日最高气温超过35℃持续3d以上的有效积温(HDD,以下简称高温积温)平均分别为1.3d和2.0℃·d,高值区主要位于长江中下游地区。过去50a,高温日数和高温积温均以1980s为界限先减后增,总体无显著的变化趋势。从空间上来说,HDD在长江以北中部地区减少,在重庆和浙江大部增加,年际间波动则体现“南方水稻区大,东北、云贵小”的分布。水稻生长季各月HDD的变化不同,以江南(II)7月HDD的增加速率最快,为1.2℃·d/10a,其次为华南(III)8月,增加0.8℃·d/10a,东北地区6-7月拔节孕穗期HDD略有增加,而长江以北(I)和云贵(VI)地区7~8月HDD有减少的趋势。2.未来2021-2050年3种RCP情景下,中国大部分地区水稻高温敏感期高温热害频率和强度增加,其中,HSD在RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别增加1.08,1.23和1.49d,HDD分别增加3.89,4.19和4.81℃?d。高温热害强度和频率增加幅度最大的地区位于东北大部,长江中下游大部和华南地区西部,呈东北—西南带状分布,增加幅度最小的地区主要分布于东南沿海地区和西南大部分地区。由于基准时段热量资源的差异,未来RCP情景下各区域高温持续日数变化特征不同,其中长江流域(I,II)主要表现为持续5d以上高温事件的增多,持续1~2d的高温事件频次略有减少,华南(III)主要表现为持续3~5d高温事件的增多,东北单季稻区(V)主要表现为持续1~5d高温事件及持续8d以上高温事件的增多,而云贵单季稻区(VI)各级高温事件频次在RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下依次减少。过去50a,中国水稻高温中心主要位于湖南北部地区,发生“南移北进东迁”的移动,未来2021-2050年,高温中心位于基准时段高温中心东北方向,北方高温热害增加幅度较南方更大,未来30年间高温中心在RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别发生“南移”,“南移北进”和“北进”的迁移,北方水稻高温热害风险在3种RCP情景下依次加大。3.多元回归结果表明,抽穗开花期是水稻对高温热害最敏感的生育阶段,其次为灌浆期和全生育期。除东北单季稻区水稻减产率和SDD32呈显著的一元二次曲线关系外,其他各区水稻的高温减产率和HDD呈显著的线性负相关。减产速率H和高温减产阈值M的分布特征一致,长江以北单季稻(I)区最高,其次为江南(II)和华南(III)地区。HDD均值较高的地区,H和M值也较高。基准时段内,中国水稻高温减产以轻度为主(L1),风险为4.8%,中度(L2)和重度(L3)减产风险分别为2.4和0.05%。未来2021-2050年3种RCP情景下,除云贵地区外,中国水稻轻、中、重度高温减产风险均增加,并且主要表现为中度减产(L1)风险的增加,其次依次为重度(L3)和轻度(L1)。其中,水稻轻度(L1)和中度(L2)高温减产风险大幅增加的地区主要为华南(III)和长江以北水稻区(I),重度(L3)减产风险大幅增加的地区主要位于东北单季稻区(V)。
[Abstract]:China is the largest rice producer in the world. The planting area and total output of rice are second and the first in the world. In the background of global warming and extreme weather events, in recent years, the growth of rice in most areas of China has increased, the intensity and frequency of high temperature heat damage have increased, and the rice production has been seriously affected. Using 1981-2009 year rice observation data, 1961-2010 year meteorological data and RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate scenario data in the next 2021-2050 years, the frequency of high temperature heat damage of high temperature sensitive rice (booting - milk) in the past 50A and future 30A Chinese rice was analyzed, and the time and space changes of the intensity were analyzed, and the high temperature accumulated temperature in the high temperature sensitive period of rice was tried to use for 1981-2009 years. The empirical regression formula of rice yield reduction rate was established to assess the spatial distribution of light, medium and severe yield reduction probability in Chinese rice under the 2021-2050 year RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, in order to understand the history and the future changes in the risk of high temperature heat damage and its effect on the yield of rice in the future, to arrange rice production and reduce the high temperature of rice. The preliminary conclusions are as follows. The preliminary conclusions are as follows: in 1.1961-2010, the effective accumulated temperature (HSD, hereinafter referred to as high temperature days) and the daily maximum temperature above 35 degrees centigrade over 35 (HDD, hereinafter referred to as high-temperature accumulated temperature) were respectively 1.3d and 2 C D, respectively, in the high temperature sensitive period of rice in China. The high value area is mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In the past 50a, the number of high temperature days and high temperature accumulated temperature were reduced first and then increased with 1980s. In space, HDD decreased in the middle of the Yangtze River, increased in Chongqing and Zhejiang, and the interannual wave movement reflected "the large, northeast, and small clouds in the South". Distribution. The variation of HDD in the growing season of rice was different. The increase rate of HDD in the south of the Yangtze River (II) in July was the fastest, 1.2. D/10a, followed by Southern China (III) in August, and 0.8. D/10a. The HDD in the jointing stage of the Northeast region was slightly increased at the jointing stage, while 7~8 month HDD in the north of the Yangtze River (I) He Yungui (VI) decreased in the next 2021-2050 years of.2.. In most areas of China, the frequency and intensity of high temperature heat damage in high temperature sensitive period of rice increased. Among them, HSD increased 1.08,1.23 and 1.49d respectively under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. HDD increased 3.89,4.19 and 4.81? D., respectively, in the large area of Northeast China, the large part of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Southern China area. In the western region of the region, the region is distributed in the northeast and southwest, and the area with the smallest increase is mainly distributed in the southeast coastal areas and most of the southwest. Due to the difference of the calorie resources in the datum period, the characteristics of the constant days of high temperature in different regions under the future RCP situation are different, and the Yangtze River flow field (I, II) is mainly shown as a continuous high temperature event above 5D. In addition, the frequency of high temperature events of continuous 1~2d decreased slightly. Southern China (III) mainly showed increasing 3~5d high temperature events. The Northeast single season rice region (V) was mainly characterized by continuous 1~5d high temperature events and increasing high temperature events above 8D, while the frequency of high temperature events at all levels in the Yunnan Guizhou single season rice region (VI) decreased in order of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the past 2021-2050 years, the center of high temperature in the north of Hunan is located in the north of Hunan. In the next 2021-2050 years, the center of high temperature is located in the northeastern direction of the high temperature center of the datum period, the increase of heat damage in the north is greater than that in the south. In the next 30 years, the center of high temperature is distributed under the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. With the migration of "South shift", "Southward moving northward" and "North entering", the risk of high temperature heat damage in northern rice was increased by the multiple regression results of.3. in 3 RCP scenarios, indicating that the heading flowering period was the most sensitive stage for high temperature heat damage in rice, followed by the grain filling period and the full growth period, and the rice yield and SDD32 were significant except in the Northeast single season rice region. There is a significant linear negative correlation between the high temperature yield reduction rate and the HDD of HDD in other regions. The distribution characteristics of the yield reduction rate H and the high temperature reduction threshold M are the same, the highest in the region of the single season rice (I) in the north of the Yangtze River, followed by the region with higher.HDD in the south of the Yangtze River (II) and Southern China (III) region, with higher H and M values. China is in the baseline period. The high temperature reduction of rice is mainly (L1), the risk is 4.8%, the risk of moderate (L2) and severe (L3) reduction is 2.4 and 0.05%. in the next 2021-2050 years, 3 RCP scenarios. In addition to the Yunnan and Guizhou areas, the risk of moderate, moderate and severe high temperature reduction in rice is increased, and the major risk of moderate yield reduction (L1) is increased, followed by severe (L3) and the next. Mildly (L1). Among them, the region of moderate (L1) and moderate (L2) high temperature reduction is mainly in Southern China (III) and north of the Yangtze River region (I), and the region of severe (L3) decrease in yield is mainly located in the Northeast single season rice area (V).

【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S511;S42

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