淮河上游冬小麦生长关键期旱涝灾害阈值研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 07:12

本文选题：SPI + 冬小麦　；参考：《灌溉排水学报》2017年07期

【摘要】：利用淮河上游地区1961-2015年13个气象站逐日降水数据,计算冬小麦生长关键期(2、3、4月)1个月尺度及3个月尺度SPI值,结合冬小麦产量数据,确定生长关键期对产量灾损率影响的具体时段,在此基础上分析了降水量变化及旱涝灾害空间分布,建立了SPI值与产量灾损率之间的定量关系。结果表明,(1)生长关键期(SPI3)和4月(SPI1_4)SPI值均与产量灾损率相关性程度高,分别通过0.01和0.05显著性水平检验;2个时段降水量变化整体呈减少趋势,且旱涝灾害空间分布存在一定的差异;(2)当SPI3值和SPI1_4值分别为-2.23和-1.82时,达到决定发生旱灾时产量灾损的阈值;(3)SPI3值和SPI1_4值与产量灾损率相关系数分别为0.94和0.82,在典型涝灾年,SPI值与产量灾损率具有线性关系。
[Abstract]:The daily precipitation data of 13 meteorological stations in the upper reaches of Huaihe River from 1961 to 2015 were used to calculate the 1-month and 3-month scale SPI values of winter wheat during the critical growth period of winter wheat, and combined with the winter wheat yield data. Based on the analysis of the variation of precipitation and the spatial distribution of drought and flood disasters, the quantitative relationship between SPI value and yield disaster loss rate was established. The results showed that SPI _ (3) and SPI _ (1) in the critical growth period were highly correlated with the yield disaster loss rate, respectively, and the changes of precipitation in the two periods showed a decreasing trend, respectively, and the correlation between SPI _ (3) and SPI _ (4) was high, which passed 0.01 and 0.05 significant level tests, respectively. The spatial distribution of drought and flood disasters is different. When the SPI3 and SPI1_4 values are -2.23 and -1.82, respectively. The correlation coefficients between the values of SPI3 and SPI1_4 were 0.94 and 0.82, respectively. The linear relationship between SPI3 and yield damage rate was found in typical waterlogging years.
【作者单位】：安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院;安徽师范大学江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心;宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41571018)
【分类号】：S42;S512.11

【相似文献】