基于全球气候变化情景的加拿大大粘土带玉米气候生产潜力研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 11:34

本文选题：气候变化 + 降尺度模型　；参考：《西北大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文在全球变暖的大背景下,以加拿大安大略省气候严寒但土壤肥沃的大粘土带(Great Clay Belt)为研究单元,基于1970-2000年的气象数据,利用SDSM(Statistical Downscaling Model)统计降尺度模型预测2015-2099年的逐日温度,利用多模型耦合方法预测逐月降水量,由此框定玉米生长期,分析生长期内的水、热等气候指标特征,并在此基础上讨论了研究区2020s(2015-2040年)、2050s(2042-2070年)和2080s(2071-2099年)的玉米种植可能性和熟型布局,并计算了研究区未来玉米的气候生产潜力。主要结论如下：(1)安大略大粘土带1970到2099年的温度和降水量变化情况如下：(a)温度总体呈上升趋势,在A2温室气体排放情景下的增温幅度大于B2情景下。日平均温度的增幅大于日最低温度,又大于日最高温度。北方的沙摩柯瀑布(Smoky Fall)和中部的卡普斯卡辛(Kapuskasing)、马特斯(Mattice)的增温幅度大于其他区域。1月、2月的增温速率最快平均0.93℃/10a。(b)年降水量800mm左右,在A2、B2情景下变化均不明显,增加速率分别为1.3 mm/10a、1.2 mm/10a。夏季、秋季的月降水量大于春季,冬季最少。从空间差异来看研究区内的年降水量从东北向西南表现出递增趋势。(2)气候变化对北安大略地区未来玉米生长期的气候资源的影响如下：(a)未来2015到2099年的玉米生长期明显延长,到2080s,播种期提前到5月初,初霜日的出现推迟到10月初,生长期全过程普遍延长了20天,玉米热积温增加550-1150℃。在A2、B2两种温室气体排放情景下,玉米热积温的增加和生长期延长表现出相同的变化趋势：在2020s,A2情景的生长期和热积温变化速率都小于B2情景,进入2050s A2情景下的变化速率开始加快,直到2080s超过B2情景。(b)生长期内降水量丰沛,在400mm以上,随时间变化不显著。各地区呈现从东北地区向西南地区递减的趋势。(3)从玉米出苗期、抽雄期、成熟期三个阶段综合考虑温度、热积温、水分条件,分析北安大略大粘土带未来玉米熟型品种布局。在2020s,研究区内还不满足玉米种植条件。2050s,研究区内部分区域可以种植15、16片叶子的早熟品种玉米。2080s,所有区域均达到玉米生长气候资源需求,部分区域可过渡到18、19片叶子的中熟型品种。为了更加充分的利用6-8月的高温,避免9月末的低温,保证成熟率和产量,适当提前播种日期,把成熟期控制在9月中旬。(4)使用农业生态区划AEZ法经过光、温、水三级订正计算农业气候生产潜力。结果表明北安大略大粘土带玉米的光合生产潜力到光温生气潜力的转化率为48%-65%,光温生产潜力到气候生产潜力的转化率为62%-75%。2050s的气候生产潜力为8000 kg/hm2以上,到2080s达到11000 kg/hm2以上。A2温室气体排放情景下的玉米气候生产潜力略高于B2情景。而且研究区内温度越高、降水量越少、种植玉米叶片数越多的区域,农业气候生产潜力越高。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global warming, the Great Clay Belt (Great Clay Belt), which is cold in climate in Canada, is used as the research unit. Based on the meteorological data of 1970-2000 years, the daily temperature of 2015-2099 years is predicted by the SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) statistical downscaling model, and the multi model coupling method is used to predict the temperature. On the basis of the monthly precipitation, the growth period of maize was fixed, the characteristics of water and heat in growth period were analyzed. On this basis, the maize planting possibility and maturity layout of 2020s (2015-2040 years), 2050s (2042-2070 years) and 2080s (2071-2099 years) were discussed, and the climatic potential of the future Maize in the study area was calculated. The main conclusions were calculated. The following are as follows: (1) the changes in temperature and precipitation of the Ontario clay belt from 1970 to 2099 are as follows: (a) the temperature is generally on the rise, the increase of temperature in the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario is greater than that under the B2 scenario. The average daily temperature increase is greater than the daily minimum temperature, but also greater than the daily maximum temperature. The north of the shousco Waterfall (Smoky Fall) and the middle The temperature increase of Capps Cassin (Kapuskasing) and Mats (Mattice) is greater than that of.1 months in other regions. The maximum temperature increasing rate in February is about 800mm of 0.93 and /10a. (b), which is not obvious in A2 and B2, the increase rate is 1.3 mm/10a, 1.2 mm/10a. in summer, and the monthly precipitation in autumn is greater than that in spring, and the lowest in winter. The annual precipitation in the study area showed an increasing trend from northeast to southwest. (2) the influence of climate change on the climate resources in the future maize growth period in Bei'an was as follows: (a) the growth period of Maize in the next 2015 to 2099 was obviously prolonged, to 2080s, the sowing period was early to early May, and the initial frost day was postponed to the beginning of October. The whole process of growth period was extended for 20 days, and the thermal accumulation temperature of maize increased by 550-1150. Under the scenario of A2, B2 two greenhouse gases, the increase of heat accumulated temperature and the growth period of the maize showed the same trend: the growth period and the heat accumulated temperature in the 2020s, A2 situation were less than the B2 scenario, and the change rate under the 2050s A2 scenario. It began to accelerate until 2080s exceeded the B2 situation. (b) the precipitation in the growth period was plentiful, above 400mm, and no significant change with time. The trend of decreasing from the northeast to the southwest was present in each region. (3) the temperature, thermal accumulated temperature and water conditions were considered from the maize emergence period, the male stage and the mature stage, and the large clay belt in Bei'an was analyzed. In 2020s, in the study area, the maize growing condition.2050s is not satisfied, and the early maturing variety of maize.2080s, which can be cultivated in some regions of the study area, can be planted with 15,16 leaves. All regions can meet the demand for the climate resources of maize growth, and some regions can be transferred to the medium mature varieties of 18,19 leaf. The high temperature of 6-8 months can avoid the low temperature at the end of 9 months, ensure the mature rate and yield, properly advance the date of early sowing, and control the maturity of the mature period in mid September. (4) using the AEZ method of agro ecological zoning to calculate the agricultural climate production potential through the three grade correction of light, temperature and water. The results show that the photosynthetic potential of the corn with the light and temperature of the big clay with the big clay in Bei'an The conversion rate of the force is 48%-65%, the production potential of the light and temperature production potential to the climate production potential is 62%-75%.2050s, the climate production potential is over 8000 kg/hm2, and the maize climate production potential under the.A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario is slightly higher than that of the B2 scenario. Moreover, the higher the temperature in the research area, the less the precipitation, the planting jade. The higher the number of rice leaves, the higher the productivity potential of agricultural climate.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S513;S162.54

【相似文献】