蒸散量双线性曲面回归模型的改进及验证

发布时间：2018-05-20 12:17

  本文选题：蒸散量 + 气温　； 参考：《农业工程学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：潜在蒸散发是水文循环和能量循环的一项重要组成,准确估算蒸散发对农业水资源有效利用具有重要的理论和现实意义。为获得精度稳定可靠的蒸散发估计值同时只需较少的气象资料,以沂沭河上游流域(临沂控制站)为研究区,提出改进的双线性曲面回归模型(bilinear surface regression model,BSRM)计算站点的潜在蒸散量。以实测蒸发数据折算的陆面潜在蒸散量为标准,同时以彭曼公式(P-M)为参考与之对比,检验和评价3种BSRM模型的精度,并分析各气象因子对潜在蒸散量的影响。结果表明:3种BSRM模型中,基于日照百分率、气温和相对湿度建立的双线性曲面回归模型模拟精度最高,以基于日照百分率计算的太阳辐射、气温、相对湿度建立的双线性曲面回归模型次之,以基于Hargreaves-Allen方程计算的太阳辐射、气温和相对湿度建立的双线性曲面回归模型模拟精度最差。基于日照百分率、气温和相对湿度建立的BSRM模型的模拟精度略优于P-M公式,但所需的气象因子较少,计算方法简单;且受气象因子的变化影响较少,模拟精度稳定可靠,是一种有效的替代方法。
[Abstract]:Potential evapotranspiration is an important component of hydrological cycle and energy cycle. Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration has important theoretical and practical significance for the effective utilization of agricultural water resources. In order to obtain accurate and reliable estimation of evapotranspiration with less meteorological data, an improved bilinear curved surface regression model (bilinear surface regression model BSRM) is proposed to calculate the potential evapotranspiration in the upper reaches of Yi-Shuhe River Basin (Linyi Control Station). Based on the land surface potential evapotranspiration converted from the measured evaporation data and compared with the Pengmang formula P-M, the accuracy of the three BSRM models is tested and evaluated, and the influence of various meteorological factors on the potential evapotranspiration is analyzed. The results show that the bilinear curved surface regression model based on sunshine percentage, temperature and relative humidity has the highest simulation accuracy among the three BSRM models, and the solar radiation and temperature based on sunshine percentage are the best. The bilinear surface regression model based on relative humidity is the second, and the bilinear surface regression model based on Hargreaves-Allen equation is the worst. Based on sunshine percentage, the simulation accuracy of BSRM model based on temperature and relative humidity is slightly better than that of P-M formula, but the meteorological factors need less, the calculation method is simple, and the simulation accuracy is stable and reliable. Is an effective alternative.
【作者单位】： 南京信息工程大学水文气象学院;河南理工大学资源环境学院;昆山市气象局;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41105074) 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20141001) 淮河流域气象开放基金(HRM201502) 江苏省气象局青年科研基金项目资助(Q201602)
【分类号】：S161.4
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本文编号：1914588