基于土壤墒情抗差的降雨径流预报模型——设计与实验流域应用

发布时间：2018-05-22 12:36

本文选题：土壤墒情 + 土壤墒情抗差　；参考：《湖泊科学》2017年06期

【摘要】：本文旨在将实时监测得到的土壤墒情转化为流域水文模型可以直接使用的土壤含水量,论证将实时土壤墒情资料用于实时预报的可行性;利用实时监测土壤墒情,改进传统的模型结构,设计基于实测土壤墒情的降雨径流水文预报模型.采用土壤含水量误差抗差估计技术以抵御观测资料粗差的影响,提高系统的稳定性;并在此基础上提出了土壤含水量系统响应修正方法,以提高模型计算精度.将该模型应用于实验流域——宝盖洞流域进行应用检验,洪水模拟合格率达到92.3%,整体模拟精度达到甲级.
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to convert the soil moisture obtained from real-time monitoring into the soil moisture content that can be used directly by the watershed hydrological model, to demonstrate the feasibility of using real-time soil moisture data for real-time forecast, and to use real-time monitoring of soil moisture, Improved the traditional model structure and designed the rainfall runoff hydrological forecast model based on the measured soil moisture. The robust estimation technique of soil water content error is used to resist the influence of gross error of observation data and the stability of the system is improved, and on this basis, a modified method of soil water content system response is proposed to improve the accuracy of the model calculation. The model has been applied to the experimental watersheds-Baogaitong watershed for application test. The qualified rate of flood simulation is up to 92.3 and the overall simulation accuracy reaches Grade A.
【作者单位】：河海大学水文水资源学院;Desert
【基金】：国家重点研发计划专项(2016YFC0402703) 国家自然科学基金项目(41371048,51479062)联合资助
【分类号】：P338;S152.7

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