基于耕地压力指数的新疆粮食安全状况研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 05:20

本文选题：耕地压力指数 + 粮食安全　；参考：《新疆农业科学》2017年09期

【摘要】：【目的】研究新疆1949~2012年64年的耕地面积和粮食产量的变化趋势,并针对耕地压力指数变化的特点,预测新疆未来10年的粮食安全状况,为新疆粮食安全提出相应的对策。【方法】运用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型以及GM(1,1)灰色预测模型定量分析新疆粮食安全程度。【结果】1949~2012年新疆最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈增加趋势,并且在未来10年耕地压力指数仍将大于1且呈显著增长趋势。【结论】新疆的粮食安全形势将愈加严峻,大力发展节水农业、增加农业科技投入、确保耕地"占-补"平衡等对策来保障粮食安全。
[Abstract]:[objective] to study the change trend of cultivated land area and grain yield in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012, and to predict the situation of food security in Xinjiang in the next 10 years according to the change characteristics of cultivated land pressure index. The corresponding countermeasures for grain security in Xinjiang were put forward. [methods] the minimum per capita cultivated land area and cultivated land pressure index model and GM1 / 1) grey prediction model were used to quantitatively analyze the degree of food security in Xinjiang. [results] the minimum degree of food security in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 was analyzed. Per capita cultivated land area and cultivated land pressure index showed an increasing trend, And in the next 10 years, the pressure index of cultivated land will still be greater than 1 and will show a significant increase trend. [conclusion] the situation of food security in Xinjiang will be more severe, vigorously develop water-saving agriculture, increase the input of agricultural science and technology, To ensure the balance of cultivated land "share-supplement" and other measures to ensure food security.
【作者单位】：新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室;新疆大学干旱生态研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目“干旱区湖泊流域陆面过程及人类活动适应性—以艾比湖为例”(41130531)~~
【分类号】：F326.11

【相似文献】