1981-2009河南玉米物候对气候变化的响应和敏感度分析（英文）

发布时间：2018-05-26 19:02

本文选题：climate + change　；参考：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2017年09期

【摘要】：With the global warming, crop phenological shifts in responses to climate change have become a hot research topic. Based on the long-term observed agro-meteorological phenological data(1981 2009) and meteorological data, we quantitatively analyzed temporal and spatial shifts in maize phenology and their sensitivities to key climate factors change using climate tendency rate and sensitivity analysis methods. Results indicated that the sowing date was significantly delayed and the delay tendency rate was 9.0 d·10a-1. But the stages from emergence to maturity occurred earlier(0.1 d·10a-1θ1.7 d·10a-1, θ is the change slope of maize phenology). The length of vegetative period(VPL)(from emergence to tasseling) was shortened by 0.9 d·10a-1, while the length of generative period(GPL)(from tasseling to maturity) was lengthened by 1.7 d·10a-1. The growing season length(GSL)(from emergence to maturity) was lengthened by 0.4 d·10a-1. Correlation analysis indicated that maize phenology was significantly correlated with average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days(GDD)(p0.01). Average temperature had significant negative correlation relationship, while precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days had significant positive correlations with maize phenology. Sensitivity analysis indicated that maize phenology showed different responses to variations in key climate factors, especially at different sites. The conclusions of this research could provide scientific supports for agricultural adaptation to climate change to address the global food security issue.
[Abstract]:With the global warming, crop phenological shifts in responses to climate change have become a hot research topic. Based on the long-term observed agro-meteorological phenological data(1981 2009) and meteorological data, we quantitatively analyzed temporal and spatial shifts in maize phenology and their sensitivities to key climate factors change using climate tendency rate and sensitivity analysis methods. Results indicated that the sowing date was significantly delayed and the delay tendency rate was 9.0 d路10a-1. But the stages from emergence to maturity occurred earlier(0.1 d路10a-1胃1.7 d路10a-1, 胃 is the change slope of maize phenology). The length of vegetative period(VPL)(from emergence to tasseling) was shortened by 0.9 d路10a-1, while the length of generative period(GPL)(from tasseling to maturity) was lengthened by 1.7 d路10a-1. The growing season length(GSL)(from emergence to maturity) was lengthened by 0.4 d路10a-1. Correlation analysis indicated that maize phenology was significantly correlated with average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days(GDD)(p0.01). Average temperature had significant negative correlation relationship, while precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days had significant positive correlations with maize phenology. Sensitivity analysis indicated that maize phenology showed different responses to variations in key climate factors, especially at different sites. The conclusions of this research could provide scientific supports for agricultural adaptation to climate change to address the global food security issue.
【作者单位】： Key
【基金】：National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41671037,No.41301091 The National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2016YFA0602402 The Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS,No.2016049
【分类号】：S162.53;S513

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