气候变暖下西南春玉米生长季不利气象条件的时空演变

发布时间：2018-05-31 18:54

本文选题：连阴天 + 高温　；参考：《资源科学》2017年09期

【摘要】：为明确西南地区气候变暖前后春玉米生长季内不利气象条件的时空演变特征,本文采用西南地区27个农业气象站点1981-2010年的发育期资料和66个气象站点的1961-2010年的逐日气象资料,分析气候变暖前后西南春玉米生长季内连阴天、高温、低温及水分盈亏发生的时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)西南地区春玉米生长季内,连阴天主要发生在出苗-七叶和七叶-抽穗阶段,变暖后发生频率分别平均增加12%和15%,但仅11%和14%的研究站点显著增加(P0.05);(2)高温天气主要发生在乳熟-成熟阶段,且主要集中在东北部地区,变暖后发生天数每生长季平均减少2.5d,23%的站点高温发生的天数显著减少(P0.05);低温天气在整个生长季均有发生,变暖后低温出现天数每生长季平均减少2.2d,其中七叶-抽穗阶段低温发生天数减少最为显著,56%的站点发生天数显著减少(P0.05);(3)水分亏缺主要发生在播种-拔节阶段,变暖后轻、中度水分亏缺发生频率分别增加6%和7%;春玉米各个生长阶段均受不同程度的水分盈余影响,但主要表现为轻度盈余,除西北部外,变暖后轻度水分盈余发生频率增加15%,播种-拔节和灌浆-成熟阶段21%和11%的研究站点轻度水分盈余显著增加(P0.05)。总体来看,变暖后西南地区春玉米生长季高温、低温发生天数减少,对玉米生长有利,但连阴天以及水分盈亏发生频率增加,可导致玉米品质下降和产量减少。
[Abstract]:In order to clarify the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of unfavorable meteorological conditions in spring maize growing season before and after climate warming in southwest China, the development period data of 27 agrometeorological stations in Southwest China from 1981 to 2010 and the daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2010 from 66 meteorological stations in Southwest China were used in this paper. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of continuous cloudy day, high temperature, low temperature and water profit and loss during the growing season of spring maize in Southwest China before and after climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that in the growing season of spring maize in southwest China, the continuous overcast days mainly occurred in the stage of seedling emergence, seven leaves and seven leaves heading. The frequency of warming increased by 12% and 15%, respectively, but only 11% and 14% of the research sites increased significantly (P 0.05) the high temperature weather mainly occurred in the stage of milk ripening and was mainly concentrated in the northeast area. The number of days after warming decreased by 2.5 days or 23% per growing season, the number of days of high temperature in the station significantly decreased, and the low temperature weather occurred in the whole growing season. The number of days of low temperature after warming decreased by 2.2 days per growing season, among which the days of occurrence of low temperature in the stage of seven leaves and heading decreased by 56% significantly (P 0.05) the water deficit occurred mainly in the stage of sowing and jointing, and it was mild after warming. The occurrence frequency of moderate water deficit increased by 6% and 7% respectively. The frequency of mild water surplus increased by 15% after warming, and the light water surplus increased significantly in 21% and 11% of the research sites at the stage of seed-jointing and grain-maturation. As a whole, the high temperature and the low temperature in the growing season of spring maize in southwest China are favorable to the growth of maize, but even overcast days and the increasing frequency of water profit and loss can lead to the decrease of corn quality and the decrease of yield.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学资源与环境学院;常山县气象局;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB430205) 全国涉农引智平台项目(2015z007)
【分类号】：S42;S513

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