我国城镇化与农业现代化协调发展的总体趋势与政策解释

发布时间：2018-06-02 10:36

本文选题：城镇化 + 农业现代化　；参考：《华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年05期

【摘要】：采用我国1978-2014年的数据,分析城镇化与农业现代化协调发展程度的变化趋势并提出对应的政策解释。通过构建城镇化和农业现代化的指标体系、采用主成分分析法确定各指标的权重后获得了城镇化水平与农业现代水平的变量数值,然后基于离差系数最小化协调度模型测算了城镇化与农业现代化的耦合度与协调发展度。结果表明:我国的农业现代化水平长期滞后于城镇化水平是制约城镇化与农业现代化协调发展的主要瓶颈;除了改革开放初期我国城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展度存在短期的波动向下趋势以外,其余年份我国城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展度总体呈现持续上升趋势;在不同的发展阶段,带动我国城镇化与农业现代化协调发展的动力机制不尽相同,而且各阶段协调发展度的变化与我国的社会经济政策存在明显的周期性关联。
[Abstract]:Based on the data from 1978 to 2014 in China, this paper analyzes the changing trend of coordinated development of urbanization and agricultural modernization and puts forward corresponding policy explanations. By constructing the index system of urbanization and agricultural modernization, the variable values of urbanization level and agricultural modern level are obtained by using principal component analysis method to determine the weight of each index. Then the coupling degree and coordinated development degree between urbanization and agricultural modernization are calculated based on the minimum coordination degree model of deviation coefficient. The results show that the level of agricultural modernization in China lags behind the level of urbanization for a long time is the main bottleneck restricting the coordinated development of urbanization and agricultural modernization; In addition to the short term fluctuation and downward trend of the coordinated development of urbanization and agricultural modernization in China at the beginning of reform and opening up, the coordinated development of urbanization and agricultural modernization in other years has generally shown a continuous upward trend. In different stages of development, the motive mechanism of promoting the coordinated development of urbanization and agricultural modernization in China is different, and the change of coordinated development degree in each stage is obviously related to the social and economic policies of our country.
【作者单位】：北京化工大学经济管理学院;北京城市学院公共管理学部;中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“农业现代化体制机制创新与工业化、信息化、城镇化同步发展研究”(13AZD003) 北京市社会科学基金项目“新常态下北京市新型农业经营主体组织形式对信贷可得性的影响研究”(15JGC145) 中央高校基本科研业务费项目“新型农业经营主体的组织形式与信贷可得性研究”(BUCTRC201512)
【分类号】：F299.21;F320.1

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