基于AHP和GIS的云南省干旱灾害风险区划研究

发布时间：2018-06-03 21:00

本文选题：干旱灾害 + 风险区划　；参考：《节水灌溉》2017年10期

【摘要】：为提高云南省干旱灾害风险评估及应急管理能力,基于自然灾害风险理论,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露度和防灾减灾能力4个方面,考虑气象、地理环境和社会因素的综合作用,构建了云南省旱灾风险评估模型。采用层次分析法计算各评估指标权重,再基于Arc GIS绘制出云南省旱灾风险等级区划图。结果表明,干旱灾害风险的空间分布呈片状形式,东北、东南部高于西北、西南部。高、次高风险区主要分布于东北部的昭通、会泽及东南部的泸西、广南等地;中等风险区包括中部大部分地区及大理、保山等地;低、次低风险区在西北部的贡山、维西及西南部的景洪、澜沧等区域。利用干旱灾情数据验证表明,评估结果能真实反映云南省旱灾损失情况,对进一步开展干旱风险评估工作的研究有借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the ability of drought disaster risk assessment and emergency management in Yunnan Province, based on the theory of natural disaster risk, meteorological factors were considered from four aspects: hazard risk, vulnerability to environment, exposure degree of disaster bearing body and ability of disaster prevention and mitigation. The drought risk assessment model of Yunnan Province is constructed by the combined effect of geographical environment and social factors. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index, and then based on Arc GIS, the drought risk classification map of Yunnan Province was drawn. The results showed that the spatial distribution of drought disaster risk was in the form of flakes, which was higher in the northeast and southeast than in the northwest and southwest. The high and second high risk areas are mainly located in the northeast of Zhaotong, Huize and the southeastern Luxi, Guangnan, etc. The middle risk areas include most of the central regions and Dali, Baoshan, etc. The low and second low risk areas are located in the northwestern Gongshan, West and southwest of Jinghong, Lancang and other regions. Using drought disaster data to verify that the evaluation results can truly reflect the drought losses in Yunnan Province, which is useful for further research on drought risk assessment.
【作者单位】：云南农业大学水利学院;河海大学水文水资源学院;河海大学水利水电学院;
【基金】：云南省应用基础研究计划青年项目(2013FD022) 云南省教育厅科学研究基金(2014Y207)
【分类号】：S423

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