江苏省1961-2012年干湿时空变化及对单季稻产量的潜在影响

发布时间：2018-06-05 03:01

  本文选题：干湿变化 + 江苏省　； 参考：《水土保持研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：利用江苏省地区52个气象站1961—2012年逐月降水量资料及单季稻产量逐年数据,计算了1个月尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI),分析了研究区干湿变化与产量的潜在联系。全省尺度上单季稻生育期各月SPI的趋势检验结果表明江苏省6—8月3个月呈现变湿润趋势,其中8月份偏涝态势尤为显著;而5月、9月、10月3个月呈现变干旱趋势,其中9月份偏旱态势尤为显著。站点尺度上各月干湿变化趋势与全省尺度的结果基本一致,值得关注的是8月呈显著变湿和9月呈显著变干的站点大都分布在苏南地区。全省尺度上单季稻产量与生育期各月SPI的相关分析结果表明在7—10月4个月中,江苏省气候越湿润,则对单季稻产量越不利。站点尺度上的结果表明江苏省单季稻产量与SPI的相关性有着明显的地域差异,其中苏南地区的单季稻种植对气候干湿变化更为敏感,特别是7月、8月、10月3个月偏多的雨涝事件将会显著影响苏南地区的产量。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly precipitation data of 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province from 1961 to 2012 and the annual yield data of single cropping rice, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) of 1 month scale was calculated, and the potential relationship between dry and wet changes and yield in the study area was analyzed. On the scale of the whole province, the trend of SPI in each month of the growth period of single cropping rice in Jiangsu Province showed a trend of wetting in June and August, especially in August, but in May, September and October, the trend of drought appeared in Jiangsu Province, especially in August, and in May, in September, in October, in 3 months in October, and in May, September and October. In September, the drought situation is particularly significant. The trend of monthly dry and wet changes on the site scale is basically consistent with the results of the whole province scale. It is worth paying attention to that most of the stations with significant change of moisture in August and dry in September are mostly distributed in the south of Jiangsu Province. The results of correlation analysis between the yield of single cropping rice and the SPI of each month in the whole province indicated that the wetter climate in Jiangsu Province was the more unfavorable to the yield of single cropping rice during the 4 months of July to October. The results at site scale showed that the correlation between single cropping rice yield and SPI was significantly different in Jiangsu Province, and the planting of single cropping rice in southern Jiangsu was more sensitive to the change of dry and wet climate. Especially in July, August and October, the heavy rainfall and waterlogging events will significantly affect the yield in southern Jiangsu.
【作者单位】： 南京市环境保护科学研究院;南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;
【基金】：江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目(16KJB170008):江苏省水稻气象灾害的风险评价及未来情景预估
【分类号】：S161;S511.41
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本文编号：1980156