华北平原冬小麦主要发育阶段日数对温度变化的敏感性分析

发布时间：2018-06-05 21:07

  本文选题：气候变化 + 发育阶段日数　； 参考：《中国农业气象》2016年04期

【摘要】：气候变化背景下,作物发育阶段日数发生了明显变化,其对温度变化的敏感性也成为气候变化对农业影响研究的重要内容。针对现有温度敏感性研究的不足,本文提出相对敏感性的概念,并以此分析华北平原冬小麦敏感性的时空分布特征。利用65个农业气象观测站1980-2012年冬小麦发育期观测资料及同期逐日平均气温数据,将发育期分为播种-越冬、越冬-返青、返青-抽穗和抽穗-成熟4个主要发育阶段,采用线性回归方法计算各阶段发育期日数对温度变化的相对敏感性,并用GIS空间插值方法研究相应指标的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)各发育阶段平均温度均呈上升趋势,不同发育阶段日数具有明显的区域分布规律;(2)播种-越冬期对温度的敏感性为-0.113~0.029℃~(-1),区域平均-0.040℃~(-1),该期敏感性呈中间高两端低的区域分布特征,且敏感性具有一定的普遍性;(3)越冬-返青期敏感性为-0.081~0.091℃~(-1),平均0.013℃~(-1)。该期敏感性区域波动大,但无明显区域特征,敏感性的稳定程度也较弱;(4)返青-抽穗期敏感性在-0.112~-0.035℃~(-1),平均-0.074℃~(-1)。敏感性无明显区域特征,但敏感性的稳定性高;(5)抽穗-成熟期敏感性在-0.114~0.014℃~(-1),平均-0.042℃~(-1),呈显著的南高北低的空间分布特征,在区域上具有很强的稳定性。总体上,不同发育阶段对温度的敏感性差异较大,且敏感性具有明显的区域分布特征。
[Abstract]:Under the background of climate change, the number of days in crop development stage has changed obviously, and its sensitivity to temperature change has become an important part of the research on the impact of climate change on agriculture. In this paper, the concept of relative sensitivity is proposed to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of the sensitivity of winter wheat in North China Plain. Based on the observed data of winter wheat development period from 1980 to 2012 in 65 agrometeorological stations and the daily average temperature data of the same period, the development period was divided into four main developmental stages: seeding and wintering, overwintering and turning green, returning green to heading and heading to maturity. The linear regression method is used to calculate the relative sensitivity of the number of days in each stage to the temperature change, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the corresponding indexes are studied by using the GIS space interpolation method. The results showed that the average temperature of each developmental stage showed an upward trend. The sensitivity of sowing-wintering period to temperature was -0.113 ~ (0.029 鈩，

本文编号：1983402