苏皖鄂地区一季稻气候适宜度模型的构建

发布时间：2018-06-05 22:03

本文选题：苏皖鄂 + 气候适宜度　；参考：《江苏农业科学》2017年02期

【摘要】：结合苏皖鄂3省23个农业气象试验站1981—2006年一季稻田间试验资料和气象数据,构建适用于研究区一季稻的气候适宜度模型。该模型从4个水稻生育期阶段出发,采用统计方法分别确立各阶段光、温作用权重系数和温度适宜度模块中的温度参数,还采用SCE-UA优化算法标定水稻的温度特征系数,最后对气候适宜度模型进行检验,并绘制研究区的水稻光、温适宜度和气候适宜度的空间分布图。结果显示:研究区稻田水分控制主要通过人工灌溉,因此,构建的气候适宜度模型仅考虑了光、温2个要素的作用;确立了一套适用于研究区一季稻的气候适宜度模型参数,计算的气候适宜度较好地反映了研究区各地的产量水平,两者相关系数达到0.65,且通过了0.01显著性水平检验;从获取的气候适宜度空间分布看,鄂中、皖西和苏南地区是一季稻种植的最适宜区域。上述研究结果可为研究区优化一季稻种植布局提供参考。
[Abstract]:Based on the field test data and meteorological data from 1981 to 2006 in 23 agrometeorological test stations in Jiangsu, Anhui and Hubei provinces, the climatic suitability model of rice in the study area was established. Based on the four stages of rice growth, the weight coefficient of light and temperature and the temperature suitability module of each stage were determined by statistical method. The temperature characteristic coefficients of rice were calibrated by SCE-UA optimization algorithm. Finally, the climatic suitability model was tested, and the spatial distribution maps of rice light, temperature suitability and climatic suitability were plotted. The results showed that the water control of paddy field was mainly controlled by artificial irrigation. Therefore, the climatic suitability model only considered the effects of light and temperature, and established a set of climatic suitability model parameters suitable for one-cropping rice in the study area. The calculated climatic suitability reflects the yield level in different regions of the study area, and the correlation coefficient between them is 0.65, and it has passed the test of 0.01 significant level. From the spatial distribution of the obtained climatic suitability, it is found that the correlation coefficient between them is 0.65, and the spatial distribution of the obtained climatic suitability is found in the middle of Hubei Province. West Anhui and southern Jiangsu are the most suitable areas for rice planting. The above results can provide reference for optimizing the planting layout of one-cropping rice in the study area.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/江苏省农业气象重点实验室;江苏省气象局;
【基金】：国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(编号:GYHY201306035,GYHY201306036,GYHY201206020) 国家科技支撑计划(编号:2011BAD32B01) 江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(编号:PAPD)
【分类号】：S511;S162.53

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