中国畜牧业温室气体排放现状及峰值预测

发布时间：2018-06-06 22:38

本文选题：中国 + 畜牧业　；参考：《农业环境科学学报》2017年10期

【摘要】：为了解近年来中国畜牧业温室气体的排放趋势,预测排放峰值,按照《省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)》(2011)要求,根据中国2005—2015年畜禽饲养量,评估了中国2005—2015年畜牧业温室气体(GHG)的排放状况,并以欧盟、美国2013年的人均畜产品蛋白占有量为衡量指标,预估了中国畜牧业达到该水平时的年份以及该年份的温室气体排放量,作为中国畜牧业温室气体排放峰值。结果表明:2005—2015年中国畜牧业温室气体排放量的范围为4.06~4.52亿t CO_2-eq,总体呈现两次先降后升的趋势,最低点出现在2008年,最高点为2009年;2009年之后,中国畜牧业温室气体排放总量较为平稳。以2015年的数据为基础分析中国畜牧业温室气体排放的组成,肠道CH_4是主要排放源,所占比例为66.61%,粪便N_2O和CH_4排放比例分别为18.23%和15.16%;从畜禽种类来看,反刍动物(牛、羊)为主要来源,排放比例可达72.44%,猪和家禽所占的比例分别为19.22%和6.81%。因此,养牛业是中国畜牧业温室气体的主要排放源,其次为养猪业。就地域分布来看,2015年,中国畜牧业温室气体排放量居于前10位的省份呈现连片性。河南、四川、内蒙古、山东和云南居全国前列,是施行减排的重点区域;新疆和西藏地区也应作为CH_4减排的重点区域。对于中国畜牧业温室气体排放峰值而言,若要达到欧盟2013年的人均畜产品蛋白占有量水平,峰值出现在2034年,排放量为4.89亿t CO_2-eq,较2015年增长8.94%,年均增长率为2.90%;若要达到美国2013年的人均畜产品蛋白占有量水平,排放峰值则在2043年,排放量为5.10亿t CO_2-eq,较2015年增长13.53%,年均增长率为4.32%。
[Abstract]:In order to understand the trend of greenhouse gas emission from animal husbandry in China in recent years and forecast the peak emission, according to the guidelines for the preparation of Provincial greenhouse Gas inventories (trial implementation) > 2011), according to the amount of livestock and poultry raised in China from 2005 to 2015, The emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) from animal husbandry in China from 2005 to 2015 was assessed and measured by the per capita protein consumption of livestock products in the EU and the United States in 2013. The year when the animal husbandry reached this level and the greenhouse gas emission in that year were estimated as the peak value of greenhouse gas emission in the Chinese animal husbandry. The results show that the range of greenhouse gas emissions from China's livestock industry from 2005 to 2015 is 4.06 to 452 million tons of CO2-eq.As a whole, the greenhouse gas emissions of China's livestock industry decreased first and then increased, with the lowest point occurring in 2008, the highest point in 2009, and after 2009, China's animal husbandry greenhouse gas emissions are relatively stable. Based on the data for 2015, the composition of greenhouse gas emissions from animal husbandry in China is analyzed. The main source of greenhouse gas emissions is intestinal CH4, accounting for 66.61%, and the proportions of N2O and CH4 emissions in feces are 18.23% and 15.16%, respectively. Sheep) is the main source, and the emission ratio is 72.44%, and the proportion of pig and poultry is 19.22% and 6.81%, respectively. Therefore, cattle industry is the main source of greenhouse gas emission, followed by pig industry. In terms of geographical distribution, the top 10 provinces with greenhouse gas emissions from China's livestock industry in 2015 presented a continuous pattern. Henan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Yunnan are among the most important regions in China, and Xinjiang and Tibet should also be the key areas for CH4 emission reduction. For China's livestock industry, the peak of greenhouse gas emissions reached in 2034 if it was to reach the EU's per capita protein share level of livestock products in 2013. The emission amount is 489 million t CO2-eq. compared with 2015, the annual growth rate is 2.900.If we want to reach the per capita protein possession level of livestock products in the United States in 2013, the emission peak is 2043, and the emission is 510 million t CO2-eq.Compared with 2015, the annual growth rate is 4.32%.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学动物科技学院;生猪健康养殖协同创新中心;华中农业大学资源与环境学院;
【基金】：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2012020) 公益性行业(农业)科研项目(201303145)~~
【分类号】：X713

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