1960~2013年西北绿洲物候性节气气温的时空特征与成因分析

发布时间：2018-06-15 04:27

  本文选题：西北绿洲 + 物候性节气　； 参考：《西北师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,全球气候变化的速度显著加快,强降水、干旱、洪水和热浪等极端天气将在全球范围内开始增加,且以中纬度地区的气候暖干化及其引发的干旱加剧问题最为明显,特别是在人口众多的发展中国家表现更为突出。对于气候变化而言,尤其是气温的变化将会对自然生态、社会经济系统产生更为深刻的影响,诸如海平面上升、冰冻圈退缩、生物多样性受损、食物安全受到威胁等。“二十四节气”是中国古代专门用来指导、订立农事的一种补充历法,其中反映物候现象的惊蛰、清明、小满和芒种节气与农业生产活动更是紧密相连,至今仍然对我国的农业生产与农事安排具有重要指导意义。因此,本文选择以西北绿洲为研究对象,利用1960~2013年中国绿洲74个气象站点的气温资料及气候倾向率、反距离加权插值和相关分析等方法,对惊蛰、清明、小满和芒种四种节气及期间的气温时空特征及其成因进行分析。本文主要结论如下:(1)从时间来看,1960~2013年,西北绿洲惊蛰、清明、小满与芒种节气及期间的气温变化规律极其相似,均表现为在波动中呈上升趋势,其中春季型节气以清明节气及期间增暖最为显著,其变化倾向率分别为0.64℃/10a(α=0.05)、0.42℃/10a(α=0.01),夏季型节气以芒种节气及期间升温最为明显,其变化倾向率分别为0.36℃/10a(α=0.1)、0.30℃/10a(α=0.01)。(2)从空间来看,区域差异较为明显,总体表现为:新疆绿洲自南向北的降低趋势和其他绿洲自东向西的递减趋势,存在一个明显的高值区(南疆绿洲)和低值区(惊蛰节气及期间在北疆绿洲,清明、小满和芒种节气及期间则在柴达木盆地绿洲)。此外,4种节气的气温高值中心均出现在吐鲁番市,低值中心仅在惊蛰出现在青河县,清明时,移至大柴旦县,清明后,则稳定出现在都兰县,这与各绿洲所处地理位置、海拔高度、下垫面性质、大气环流及太阳活动等因子影响不同所致。(3)通过对物候性节气及期间气温与逐日北大西洋涛动(NAO)、北极涛动(AO)、太阳黑子数(SSN)和逐月南亚夏季风(SASM)、东亚夏季风(EASM)指数的相关分析表明:除惊蛰期间外,在清明、小满和芒种期间,NAO、AO与北疆、河西、河套和阿拉善绿洲的相关系数均≥0.23,且均通过了置信度水平检验。柴达木盆地绿洲和河套平原绿洲芒种期间气温分别与SASM、EASM呈明显负相关关系,相关系数分别为-0.23(α=0.1)、-0.25(α=0.1),表明柴达木盆地绿洲和河套平原绿洲主要受季风环流影响。此外,太阳活动与惊蛰节气、清明期间的气温均为显著负相关关系,与小满节气呈显著正相关关系,表明太阳活动也是影响各绿洲物候性节气的主要因子。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the 21st century, the speed of global climate change has accelerated significantly. Extreme weather conditions, such as heavy precipitation, drought, floods and heat waves, will begin to increase on a global scale. Especially in the developing countries with large population, the problem of climate warming and drought exacerbation in mid-latitudes is the most obvious. As far as climate change is concerned, especially the change of temperature will have a more profound impact on natural ecology and socio-economic system, such as sea level rise, freeze retreat, biodiversity loss and food security threat. "24 solar terms" is a supplementary calendar that was specially used in ancient China to guide and establish agricultural affairs. It reflects the phenomenon of phenology. The Qingming, Lesser Fullness of Grain and Grain in Beard solar terms are closely related to agricultural production activities. It still has important guiding significance to agricultural production and arrangement of agricultural affairs in our country. Therefore, this paper chooses the northwest oasis as the research object, uses the temperature data of 74 meteorological stations in China from 1960 to 2013, the climatic tendency rate, the inverse distance weighted interpolation and the correlation analysis and so on. The temporal and spatial characteristics and causes of air temperature in four solar terms and periods of Lesser Fullness of Grain and Grain in Beard were analyzed. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) from 1960 to 2013, the changes of temperature in northwest oasis, Qingming, Qingming, Lesser Fullness of Grain and Grain in Beard are very similar, and they all show an upward trend in fluctuation. In the spring solar terms, the Ching Ming Festival gas and the warming during the period were the most significant, and the change tendency rates were 0.64 鈩，

本文编号：2020647