基于跨尺度模型融合的气候变化对我国大豆主产区影响及适应技术模拟研究

发布时间：2018-06-16 11:26

本文选题：大豆 + 气候变化　；参考：《上海应用技术学院》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：大豆是我国主要的油料作物,目前我国大豆自给率较低,对外依存度连年升高,存在严重的供需矛盾。气候变化将会改变我国的气候资源状况,直接影响我国大豆生长发育、种植模式、种植布局、生产潜力等,因此客观准确地评价气候变化对我国大豆生产的影响,采取有效的适应措施充分利用气候资源,趋利避害,对提高中国大豆自给率、保障油料安全具有重大意义。本研究基于1981-2011年我国大豆主产区的站点观测数据,将站点尺度的作物生长机理模型DSSAT(decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer)和土地生产力模型AEZ(Agricultural Ecology Zone)有机融合。利用作物机理模型DSSAT模拟得到我国本土大豆品种参数,基于ArcGIS将站点的数据基于耕作区分布进行空间升尺度。将DSSAT模型的模拟数据扩充并改进AEZ模型原有大豆的品种库参数,调整AEZ模型的模拟方法,建立适合评估我国大豆生产的China-AEZ模型,模拟未来气候变化对我国大豆生产潜力的变化,同时基于AEZ模型生产潜力的模拟能力分析未来气候变化下我国大豆生产的适应技术。本研究得到的结果：从空间尺度上及时间尺度上来看,DSSAT模型对我国大豆生长发育具有较好的模拟能力；基于DSSAT模型的模拟结果和大豆观测值改进后的China-AEZ模型对我国大豆主产区的区域模拟能力得到了较大的提高。总体来看,气候变化影响下,我国大豆总产减少1467千吨,适宜面积增加4700千公顷,平均生产潜力减少137kg/ha。区域上来看,气候变化引起东北地区大豆增产,华北、南方大部分地区减产。气候变化下,大豆适宜品种和播期也随之改变,利用AEZ模型模拟的适应播期和品种,更新到DSSAT模型,以此与未使用适应播期和品种的结果进行比较,评估适应播期和品种对减缓气候变化对大豆生产的不利影响的作用。此外,本研究针对气候变暖干旱加剧,评估了灌溉对大豆生产的增产效益,结果显示在干旱、半干旱地区增产幅度明显,最高区域高达2000kg/ha。
[Abstract]:Soybean is the main oil crop in China. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of soybean in China is low, the degree of external dependence has been increasing for years, and there is a serious contradiction between supply and demand. Climate change will change the situation of climate resources in China, directly affect soybean growth and development, planting pattern, planting layout, production potential and so on. Therefore, the impact of climate change on soybean production in China is evaluated objectively and accurately. It is of great significance to take effective measures to make full use of climate resources and avoid disadvantages in order to improve the self-sufficiency rate of soybean in China and ensure the oil security. Based on the observed data from the main soybean production areas in China from 1981 to 2011, the site-scale crop growth mechanism model DSSAT decision support system for Agrotechnology transfer and the land productivity model AEZ Agricultural Ecology Zone1 were integrated. The crop mechanism model DSSAT was used to simulate the parameters of native soybean varieties in China. Based on ArcGIS, the site data were scaled up based on the distribution of cultivated areas. The simulation data of DSSAT model were expanded and the original soybean variety database parameters of AEZ model were improved, and the simulation method of AEZ model was adjusted to establish China-AEZ model suitable for evaluating soybean production in China, and to simulate the change of future climate change on soybean production potential in China. At the same time, based on the AEZ model production potential simulation ability to analyze the future climate change of soybean production adaptation technology in China. The results of this study are as follows: from the spatial scale and time scale, the DSSAT model has a good ability to simulate the growth and development of soybean in China; The simulation results based on DSSAT model and the improved China-AEZ model have greatly improved the regional simulation ability of soybean production areas in China. As a whole, under the influence of climate change, the total soybean production in China decreased by 1467 kilotons, the suitable area increased by 4 700 thousand hectares, and the average productive potential decreased by 137 kg / ha. Regionally, climate change has caused soybean production in Northeast China, North China and most of the South. Under the climate change, the suitable varieties and sowing dates of soybean were changed, and the suitable sowing dates and varieties simulated by AEZ model were updated to the DSSAT model, so as to compare the results with the results of non-adapted sowing dates and varieties. To evaluate the effects of adaptation to sowing time and varieties on mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on soybean production. In addition, in view of the climate warming and drought exacerbation, the benefit of irrigation on soybean yield was evaluated. The results showed that in arid and semi-arid areas, the yield increase was obvious, and the highest area was as high as 2000kg / ha.
【学位授予单位】：上海应用技术学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S565.1;S162.54

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