河南省农业干旱灾害风险评价

发布时间：2018-06-20 13:46

本文选题：农业干旱灾害 + 风险评估　；参考：《华北水利水电大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在全球变暖的大趋势下,旱灾给人类带来的灾害越来越严重,干旱灾害已成为全球最普遍存在的一种自然灾害。作为全国的粮食大省,河南省受到农业干旱的影响最为严重,严重制约着河南农业的生产和经济的发展,因此系统地评价河南省农业干旱灾害,对提高河南省农业生产效益、粮食安全以及社会经济的持续发生等有非常重大的意义。由于农业干旱灾害涉及到的因素较多,受到自然、社会等多方面的综合影响,是一个非常复杂多变的系统,需要考虑到各方面的相互影响。旱灾主要受致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体以及防灾减灾风险等多方面的影响,因此,选取的风险因子是否能够准确反映旱灾,能否对旱灾程度进行定量描述,以及如何识别旱灾风险中的不确定因素是当前农业旱灾风险需要给予解决的问题。本文在系统分析河南省农业旱灾影响因子的基础上,对旱灾风险的形成原因进行分析。从影响农业干旱灾害的风险四要素即致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体以及防灾减灾能力4方面入手,以灾害学理论为基础,利用层次分析法、加权综合法和自然灾害指数法,构建了农业干旱灾害风险评价体系和风险评估模型,继而绘制河南省农业干旱风险区划图,根据气象、水文、农业和社会经济数据,运用最优分割法和模糊信息分配法对河南省典型区进行干旱灾害风险概率分析,主要包括以下内容:(1)从河南省干旱时间、空间和季节性差异来分析河南省近50年的干旱特征,从影响农业干旱的自然因素和社会因素两个方面分别对河南省农业干旱灾害的致灾机理进行分析。(2)从影响农业干旱的致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、防灾减灾能力四方面入手,选取合理的指标,建立农业干旱灾害风险模型,对风险值进行量化,绘制农业干旱风险区划图。河南省农业干旱灾害风险趋势从北向南逐渐递减,经向上东中部大于西部,南部处于低风险区,河南省中部的平顶山,北部的济源、鹤壁等地的干旱风险值较大,处于极高风险区;河南省西部的三门峡、中部的郑州、开封、许昌等地区的风险值处于高风险区;河南省中部的洛阳、周口以及南部的南阳、信阳等地的旱灾风险较小处于中低风险区。(3)根据得到的农业干旱指数,利用最优分割法,确定风险等级标准。选取新乡、三门峡、南阳、郑州、商丘作为农业干旱灾害风险概率评估典型区,利用模糊信息分配法对典型区的旱灾进行模糊评价,得到以下结论:南阳市发生低风险,轻风险旱灾的概率较高,但发生高风险、极高风险旱灾的概率较低;三门峡市和郑州发生高风险旱灾的概率最高,发生低风险旱灾的概率最小;商丘和新乡发生中风险和极高风险旱灾的概率较大。
[Abstract]:Under the trend of global warming, drought has brought more and more serious disasters to human beings. Drought disaster has become the most common natural disaster in the world. As a large grain province in China, Henan Province is the most seriously affected by agricultural drought, which seriously restricts the agricultural production and economic development in Henan Province. Therefore, the evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in Henan Province is of great benefit to the agricultural production of Henan Province. Food security and the sustained occurrence of social economy are of great significance. Because the agricultural drought disaster involves many factors and is influenced by nature and society, it is a very complicated and changeable system, which needs to take into account the mutual influence of each other. Drought is mainly affected by disaster factors, disaster environment, disaster bearing body, disaster prevention and mitigation risk and so on. Therefore, whether the selected risk factors can accurately reflect the drought, whether the degree of drought can be quantitatively described, And how to identify the uncertain factors in the drought risk is a problem that needs to be solved. Based on the systematic analysis of the factors affecting agricultural drought in Henan Province, this paper analyzes the causes of the formation of drought risk. Starting with the four factors that affect the risk of agricultural drought disaster, namely, the disaster causing factors, the disaster environment, the disaster bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, based on the theory of disaster science, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the weighted synthesis method and the natural disaster index method, The agricultural drought risk assessment system and risk assessment model are constructed, and then the agricultural drought risk zoning map of Henan Province is drawn, which is based on meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socio-economic data. Using the optimal partition method and fuzzy information distribution method to analyze the risk probability of drought disaster in typical areas of Henan Province, including the following contents: 1) the drought characteristics of Henan Province in the past 50 years are analyzed from the drought time, spatial and seasonal differences. This paper analyzes the mechanism of agricultural drought disaster in Henan Province from the two aspects of natural and social factors which affect agricultural drought. It starts with the following four aspects: the factors affecting agricultural drought, disaster environment, disaster bearing body, disaster prevention and mitigation ability. Selecting reasonable indexes, establishing agricultural drought disaster risk model, quantifying the risk value, drawing agricultural drought risk zoning map. The trend of agricultural drought disaster risk in Henan Province decreases gradually from north to south, and the risk value of drought is larger in the east than in the west, in the south in the low risk area, in Pingdingshan in the middle of Henan Province, in Jiyuan in the north, in Hebi, etc. In extremely high-risk areas; in the Sanmenxia region in the west of Henan Province, in Zhengzhou, Kaifeng and Xuchang in the central part of Henan Province; in Luoyang, Zhoukou and Nanyang in the south of Henan Province; The drought risk of Xinyang and other places is small in the middle and low risk area.) according to the agricultural drought index obtained, the risk grade standard is determined by using the optimal partition method. Selecting Xinxiang, Sanmenxia, Nanyang, Zhengzhou, Shangqiu as typical areas of risk assessment of agricultural drought disaster, using fuzzy information distribution method to carry out fuzzy evaluation of drought in typical areas, the following conclusions are obtained: low risk occurs in Nanyang, The probability of light risk drought is high, but the probability of very high risk drought is low, the probability of high risk drought in Sanmenxia city and Zhengzhou is the highest, and the probability of low risk drought is the least. The probability of drought in Shangqiu and Xinxiang is high.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S423

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