安徽省农业经济增长与农业面源污染关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 16:35

本文选题：农业面源污染 + 农业经济增长　；参考：《安徽农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：生态环境问题一直是中央和地方政府的热点问题,尤其是农村生态环境日益恶化,成为影响社会和谐发展的不利因素。安徽省农业经济发展处于稳步上升的阶段,农业产值不断提高,农民生活水平普遍提高,但区域内的农业面源污染问题日益凸显。本文主要是以文献研究法和实证研究法、定性与定量分析法相结合为主,结合环境经济理论和经济学理论,定性分析农业面源污染形成与治理理论,运用环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,即在经济发展初期,人类的生产行为对环境污染程度较轻,随着人类通过投入更多的资源要素不断发展经济,追求自身利益最大化,却没有重视环境与经济的协调发展,环境加剧恶化,经济发展到达一定顶峰后,人类开始关注环境问题,逐步治理环境。本文从农业面源污染源头,主要是种植业、畜禽业和农村生活三方面入手,实证分析安徽省农业经济增长与农业面源污染,研究结论如下：农业面源污染现状分析：随着安徽省农业经济的发展,种植业生产中化肥、农药、农膜施用量与流失量总量基本呈现上升趋势,且呈现高使用量和低利用率,最终造成大部分农业化学品进入水体和土壤,严重破坏生态环境;畜禽养殖业发展快速,但废弃物综合利用和污染防治水平低,造成地表水和空气的严重污染；同时,秸秆年排放量居高不下,农村生活污水排放量呈直线上升的态势。总之,农业面源污染的日益加剧给土壤、水体、大气以及农民的健康造成一定的威胁。农业面源污染的实证检验：农业经济增长和农业面源污染各替代指标间存在协整关系,通过格兰杰因果检验,表明农业经济增长是农业面源污染产生的原因。EKC结果表明：农业面源污染与农业经济增长之间呈现“倒U型”、“倒U型+U型”、线性关系。人均农林牧渔产值与单位面积化肥流失量、单位面积农药流失量、单位面积农膜残留量和农村生活污水排放量之间呈现显著的“倒U型”EKC曲线,且前三者的EKC转折点已经出现,未来有望下降,环境逐渐改善；而农村生活污水排放量在转折点的左侧,还可能继续增加,不利于生态环境。而安徽省畜禽粪便排放量与人均农林牧渔产值之间呈现“倒U型+U型”曲线,是先上升后下降再上升的趋势,近几年畜禽排放量处于“U型”右侧,未来有上升趋势。秸秆排放量与人均农林牧渔产值的之间呈线性递增关系,且排放量随着农业经济的增长而逐渐上升。农业面源污染的主要问题分析：农业面源污染的体制机制不健全,农民的环保意识淡薄,混淆点源与面源污染防治,防控技术落后,农村生活废弃物处理体系不完善等。通过安徽省农业面源污染实证研究,结合国外防治农业面源污染的成功经验,从种植业、畜禽养殖业以及农村生活污染源头提出具体建议,同时加大技术和资金支持,鼓励科技创新,加强环保宣传,促进群众参与管理。
[Abstract]:Ecological environment has always been a hot issue of central and local governments, especially the worsening of rural ecological environment, which has become an unfavorable factor affecting the harmonious development of society. The development of agricultural economy in Anhui Province is on the stage of steady rise, the agricultural output value is constantly improving, and the living standard of farmers is generally improved, but the problem of agricultural non-point source pollution in the region is becoming increasingly prominent. This paper mainly uses the literature research method and the empirical research method, the qualitative and quantitative analysis method unifies primarily, unifies the environment economy theory and the economics theory, qualitative analysis agricultural non-point source pollution formation and the control theory. Using the hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curve, that is, in the early stage of economic development, the degree of environmental pollution from human production behavior is relatively light, as human beings continue to develop their economy by investing more resource elements, and pursue the maximization of their own interests. However, no attention has been paid to the coordinated development of environment and economy, environmental deterioration has been aggravated, and economic development has reached a certain peak, human beings have begun to pay attention to environmental problems and gradually manage the environment. This paper analyzes the agricultural economic growth and agricultural non-point source pollution in Anhui Province from three aspects of agricultural non-point source pollution, mainly planting industry, livestock and poultry industry and rural life. The conclusions are as follows: with the development of agricultural economy in Anhui Province, the amount of fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural film application and the total amount of loss of agricultural film are on the rise with the development of agricultural economy in Anhui Province, and present high usage and low utilization ratio. As a result, most agricultural chemicals enter water bodies and soils, seriously damaging the ecological environment; livestock and poultry breeding develops rapidly, but the comprehensive utilization of wastes and the level of pollution prevention and control are low, resulting in serious surface water and air pollution; at the same time, The annual discharge of straw is high and the discharge of rural domestic sewage is rising in a straight line. In a word, the aggravation of agricultural non-point pollution threatens the health of soil, water, atmosphere and farmers. The empirical test of agricultural non-point source pollution: there is cointegration relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural non-point source pollution alternative indicators, through Granger causality test, EKC results show that the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth is "inverted U type", "inverted U type U type", and linear relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth. The EKC curve between per capita agricultural, forestry, fishery output value and fertilizer loss per unit area, pesticide loss per unit area, residual amount of agricultural film per unit area and the discharge of rural domestic sewage showed significant "inverted U-shaped" EKC curve. Moreover, the EKC turning point of the first three has already appeared, which is expected to decrease in the future, and the environment will be improved gradually, while the discharge of rural domestic sewage on the left side of the turning point may continue to increase, which is not conducive to the ecological environment. However, there was a "inverted U type U" curve between the amount of excrement of livestock and poultry and the output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery per capita in Anhui Province, which increased first and then decreased and then increased. In recent years, the amount of excretion of livestock and poultry was on the right side of "U type", and there was an upward trend in the future. The relationship between straw emission and per capita output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery increased linearly, and the emission increased gradually with the increase of agricultural economy. Analysis of the main problems of agricultural non-point source pollution: the system and mechanism of agricultural non-point source pollution is not perfect, the farmers' consciousness of environmental protection is weak, the prevention and control of point source and non-point source pollution are confused, the technology of prevention and control is backward, and the treatment system of rural domestic waste is not perfect, etc. Based on the empirical study of agricultural non-point source pollution in Anhui Province and the successful experiences of foreign countries in preventing and controlling agricultural non-point source pollution, specific suggestions are put forward from the sources of planting, livestock and poultry breeding and rural life pollution, and the technical and financial support is increased at the same time. Encourage scientific and technological innovation, strengthen environmental publicity, and promote the participation of the masses in management.
【学位授予单位】：安徽农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X71;F327

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