松花江流域极端降雨变化对流域输沙量的影响

发布时间：2018-06-20 22:33

本文选题：输沙量 + 极端降雨　；参考：《农业机械学报》2017年08期

【摘要】：基于松花江流域及其周边共43个气象站点1960—2014年逐日降雨数据及佳木斯水文站输沙量数据,采用Mann-Kendall非参数趋势分析方法、小波周期性分析和双累积曲线法,分析了流域内7个极端降雨指数和输沙量的动态变化趋势,在此基础上定量评估了流域极端降雨变化对输沙量的影响。结果表明:1960—2014年间,松花江流域7个极端降雨指数(最大1 d降雨量(RX1day)、连续5 d最大降雨量(RX5day)、降雨强度指数(SDII)、大于95%分位值强降雨量(P95pTOT)、大雨量(HP)、暴雨量(RSP)和汛期降雨量(FSPTOT))皆呈阶段性波动变化,存在16~20 a的大周期和5~6 a的小周期变化特征,但近55 a各极端降雨指数整体上呈不显著的变化趋势;期间佳木斯水文站输沙量的变化趋势与7个极端降雨指数的变化趋势类似。松花江流域各极端降雨指数与输沙量均存在极显著相关性(p0.01),其中RX5day、P95pTOT与输沙量的相关性最显著。双累积曲线分析显示,流域输沙量与各极端降雨指数关系的突变点均发生在1977年。与基准期(1960—1977年)相比,1978—2014年松花江流域各极端降雨指数对输沙量变化的影响在3.09%~15.24%之间,其中SDII变化对输沙量的影响最大(15.24%),其次是FSPTOT(14.81%)和RX5day(14.34%)。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily rainfall data of 43 meteorological stations in Songhua River basin and its surrounding area from 1960 to 2014 and the data of sediment transport in Jiamusi hydrological station, the dynamic variation trend of 7 extreme rainfall index and sediment transport volume in the basin is analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall non parametric trend analysis method, the wavelet periodic analysis and the double cumulative curve method. The effects of extreme rainfall on the sediment transport were evaluated quantitatively. The results showed that from 1960 to 2014, 7 extreme rainfall indices (maximum 1 D rainfall (RX1day), 5 d maximum rainfall (RX5day), rainfall intensity index (SDII), heavy rainfall (P95pTOT), rainfall (HP), heavy rainfall (RSP) and flood season decreased in the Songhua River basin. Rainfall (FSPTOT) is all stage fluctuation, there is a large cycle of 16~20 A and the small cycle of 5~6 a, but the extreme rainfall index of near 55 A is not significant on the whole, and the change trend of sediment transport in Jiamusi hydrological station is similar to that of 7 extreme rainfall index. The extreme rainfall in Songhua River Basin There is a very significant correlation between the number and the amount of sediment transport (P0.01), of which the correlation between RX5day and P95pTOT is the most significant. The double cumulative curve analysis shows that the catastrophe points of the relationship between the sediment transport volume and the extreme rainfall index are all in 1977. Compared with the datum period (1960 to 1977), the extreme rainfall index of the Songhua River basin from 1978 to 2014 is the same. The change of sediment load is affected by 3.09%~15.24%, of which SDII change has the greatest impact on sediment discharge (15.24%), followed by FSPTOT (14.81%) and RX5day (14.34%).
【作者单位】：西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室;中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41571263)
【分类号】：S157.1

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