黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱灾害危险性评估与区划

发布时间：2018-06-26 09:28

本文选题：干旱灾害 + 夏玉米　；参考：《哈尔滨师范大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：干旱是全球范围内发生频率高、持续时间长、波及范围广的一种灾害类型,对农业生产造成巨大损失的同时,也威胁着人民生活和经济活动。干旱已经成为危害我国农业的最主要自然灾害之一,同时也是造成玉米减产的主要气象灾害。作为农业干旱主要分布区之一的黄淮海地区既是我国最大的粮食生产区,也是夏玉米作物的主要产区。加强黄淮海地区夏玉米干旱灾害危险性的评价和区划研究,既为自然灾害风险评估和制定防灾减灾措施提供经验和依据,又对提高社会经济效益和农业的可持续发展有十分重要的意义。本文以黄淮海地区为研究对象,对该地区及所包含省市(河北省、河南省、山东省、安徽省、北京市、天津市)夏玉米干旱灾害致灾因子危险性进行评估与区划。本文基于1971~2011年黄淮海地区降水数据,以全生育期降水距平百分率作为夏玉米农业气象干旱指标;对其进行信息扩散,得到轻旱、中旱、重旱和严重干旱发生概率,并以此作为黄淮海夏玉米干旱灾害危险性评价因子;结合GIS空间分析技术实现指标间的空间叠置、计算、进行危险性综合区划及评估并绘制成图。研究的主要结论如下:(1)黄淮海地区北部干旱风险概率随着降水距平百分率增加而不断减小,西部随降水距平百分率增加呈先增加后减少趋势;东部随降水距平百分率增加而不断增大;东南部随降水距平百分率的增加呈先减少后增加再减少趋势。(2)黄淮海地区北部轻旱、中旱风险大于重旱和严重干旱风险;轻旱风险高值区从河北省西北部、北部地区向东北部地区转移为中旱高风险区。(3)黄淮海地区干旱危险性区划,以低危险性区域分布范围最广,轻低危险性分布区面积大于中高危险区域。黄淮海地区高危险性区域主要分布在河北省北部小部和安徽省北部小部地区。本文为进一步研究农业自然灾害风险区划、危险性指标的选取提供借鉴和参考意见。
[Abstract]:Drought is a kind of disaster type which has high frequency, long duration and wide range in the world. It has caused great loss to agricultural production and also threatens people's living and economic activities. Drought has become one of the most important natural disasters in agriculture in China, and it is also the main meteorological disaster to reduce the yield of corn. The Huanghuai sea area, which is one of the main distribution areas of agricultural drought, is not only the largest grain production area in China, but also the main producing area of summer corn crops. The evaluation and division of the drought hazard risk of Summer Maize in the Huanghuai and Huaihai region provides both experience and basis for natural disaster risk assessment and disaster prevention and reduction measures. The economic benefit and sustainable development of agriculture are of great significance. This paper evaluates and zoning the risk factors of drought disaster factors of Summer Maize in the region and the provinces and cities including Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Beijing and Tianjin. This paper is based on the Huang Huai Haiti in Huang Huai. The precipitation data, taking the percentage of precipitation anomaly as the index of summer maize Agrometeorological drought, spread the information to the drought, drought, severe drought and severe drought, and used it as the risk assessment factor of drought disaster of Huang Huai and summer maize, and the spatial analysis of GIS space analysis technology to realize the space superimposition among the indexes. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the probability of drought risk in the north of the Yellow Huai sea area decreases with the increase of the percentage of precipitation anomaly, and then increases first and then decreases with the increase of the percentage of precipitation in the west, and the east part increases with the percentage of precipitation anomaly; (2) the light drought in the north of the Yellow Huai sea area is light drought, and the drought risk is greater than the heavy drought and severe drought risk. The high value area of the light drought risk is transferred from north-west Hebei province to the northeast region. (3) the drought hazard zoning in the yellow Huai and Huai sea area is low. The area of risk distribution is the most widely distributed, the area of the light and low risk distribution area is larger than the middle and high risk area. The high risk areas in the Yellow Huai sea area are mainly distributed in the northern part of Hebei province and the small part of the northern part of Anhui province. This paper provides reference and reference for the further study of the risk zoning of agricultural natural disasters and the selection of risk indicators.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S513;S423

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