生态安全约束下耕地潜在转换及其对粮食生产的影响——以东北地区为例

发布时间：2018-06-28 12:03

本文选题：土地管理 + 不稳定耕地　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年11期

【摘要】：随着生态安全日益受到关注,耕地利用面临的生态安全约束也日趋加重,对耕地资源的稳定利用及生产能力构成了潜在威胁,因此,研究生态安全约束下耕地稳定性及其对粮食生产的影响具有重要意义。本文以东北地区为例,从多源生态安全约束成因出发在分析了地区生态安全约束下"不稳定"耕地规模及空间分布的基础上,通过设计基于生态安全约束强度的"不稳定"耕地后续用途转换多情景模拟方法,系统评估了生态安全情景、综合权衡情景和粮食安全情景下"不稳定"耕地潜在用途转换对地区粮食生产能力的影响。研究发现:(1)生态安全约束下,东北地区存在427.51万hm~2"不稳定"耕地,林区过度开垦是地区"不稳定"耕地形成的最主要因素,46.26%"不稳定"耕地继续耕种会影响生态环境或者经过工程改造后也难以保证稳定收获。(2)三种情境下,东北地区"不稳定"耕地潜在转换量分别为427.51万hm~2、387.97万hm~2和395.39万hm~2,分别占地区耕地总量的13.79%、12.52%和1.28%,耕地转换用途主要集中于退耕还林、还草等。(3)三种情景下,"不稳定"耕地潜在用途转换将导致地区粮食生产能力分别下降12.62%、11.73%和6.90%,减少量相当于2010—2015年全国年均新增粮食总产量。总体来看,生态安全约束下东北地区耕地资源稳定性对地区粮食生产能力已造成潜在威胁,因此,东北地区需要统筹好"耕地保护"、"生态红线"与"粮食安全"三者之间的关系,加强耕地数量、质量、生态"三位一体"保护,优先选择"不稳定"耕地推进"藏粮于地"战略思想,实现耕地资源永久持续利用。
[Abstract]:With the increasing attention to ecological security, the ecological security constraints of cultivated land use are becoming more and more serious, which pose a potential threat to the stable utilization and productive capacity of cultivated land resources. It is of great significance to study the stability of cultivated land and its influence on grain production under the restriction of ecological security. Taking Northeast China as an example, based on the analysis of the scale and spatial distribution of "unstable" cultivated land under the constraints of regional ecological security, the causes of multi-source ecological security constraints are analyzed. By designing a multi-scenario simulation method of "unstable" arable land for subsequent use conversion based on the intensity of ecological security constraints, the ecological security scenarios are systematically evaluated. The effects of potential use conversion of unstable cultivated land on regional grain production capacity under both scenarios and food security scenarios were comprehensively weighed. The results are as follows: (1) under the restriction of ecological security, there are 4.2751 million hm~2 "unstable" cultivated land in Northeast China. Over-reclamation is the most important factor for the formation of "unstable" cultivated land in the region. 46.26% of the "unstable" cultivated land will affect the ecological environment or be difficult to ensure stable harvest after engineering transformation. (2) under the three conditions, The potential conversion amount of "unstable" cultivated land in Northeast China was 4.2751 million ~ 23.8797 million hm~2 and 3.9539 million mm ~ 2, respectively, which accounted for 13.79% 12.52% and 1.28% of the total cultivated land, respectively. The conversion of cultivated land was mainly focused on returning farmland to forest. (3) under the three scenarios, the potential use conversion of "unstable" cultivated land will lead to a decrease of 12.62% and 6.90% of the regional grain production capacity respectively, which is equivalent to the total annual increase in grain production in the whole country from 2010 to 2015. In general, the stability of cultivated land resources in Northeast China has posed a potential threat to the regional grain production capacity under the restriction of ecological security. In Northeast China, the relationship among "cultivated land protection", "ecological red line" and "food security" should be well coordinated, and cultivated land quantity, quality and ecological "trinity" protection should be strengthened. Priority should be given to "unstable" cultivated land to promote the strategic idea of "storing grain in the land" to realize the permanent and sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学公共管理学院;南京审计大学政府审计学院;中国土地勘测规划院;
【基金】：中国土地规划勘测院外协项目“二次调查不稳定耕地综合分析任务”(批准号:20130517) 国家自然科学基金项目“农地流转模式、流转契约与农业规模经营模式组合:驱动力、绩效与机制设计”(批准号:71373127);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“非正式制度视角下农地产权安全与投资激励:作用机理及政策干预机制设计”(批准号:71603121);“城市产业空间结构对土地利用效率的影响机制研究”(批准号:41601115)
【分类号】：F323.211;F326.11

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