中国耕地非农化压力时空格局的演变分析

发布时间：2018-06-30 17:15

本文选题：熵值法 + 耕地非农化　；参考：《长江流域资源与环境》2017年12期

【摘要】：社会经济和资源禀赋的区域差异导致耕地非农化压力表现出明显的空间异质性。开展耕地非农化压力测算并揭示其时空格局演变,是实现土地资源优化配置的基础。从经济因素、社会因素、产业结构和资源禀赋4个方面构建耕地非农化压力指数评价指标体系,采用熵值法计算各指标权重,继而计算1990~2014年中国31省的耕地非农化压力指数,并在此基础上开展了耕地非农化压力的时空格局分析。结果表明:(1)从空间格局分布来看,中国耕地非农化压力空间分布呈现明显的地理梯度,总体上呈现从东到西依次递减的态势。(2)从时间变化趋势来看,不同地区各省份之间的耕地非农化压力指数变化呈现多元化趋势。东部沿海地区,山东、浙江、江苏的耕地非农化压力指数处于上升阶段,上海、福建的压力指数变化趋势逐渐趋稳,广东的压力指数呈现下降趋势。中部地区,河南、河北、山西、江西的耕地非农化压力指数趋稳,陕西、湖北以及四川、重庆等西南地区省份的压力指数呈上升趋势。西部沿边3省(云南、西藏、新疆)的耕地非农化压力呈现了一致的下降趋势。(3)从时空格局结合来看,耕地非农化压力不同的省份其变化趋势呈现出截然不同的走向。在耕地非农化压力较大的地区,耕地非农化经历了从制度驱动向发展推动的阶段,经济增长的倒"U"型轨迹明显,经济增长与耕地非农化之间的关系逐渐脱钩。在耕地非农化压力居中或较小的地区,产业发展滞后,土地比较收益较低,耕地的社会保障作用、生态作用对耕地非农化的影响较大,从而增加了部分省份的耕地非农化压力。
[Abstract]:The regional differences of social economy and resource endowment resulted in obvious spatial heterogeneity of cultivated land non-agricultural pressure. It is the foundation to realize the optimal allocation of land resources by measuring the non-agricultural pressure of cultivated land and revealing the evolution of its space-time pattern. From four aspects of economic factors, social factors, industrial structure and resource endowment, the evaluation index system of non-agricultural pressure index of cultivated land is constructed, and the weights of each index are calculated by entropy method, and then the non-agricultural pressure index of cultivated land in 31 provinces of China from 1990 to 2014 is calculated. On this basis, the time-space pattern of non-agricultural pressure of cultivated land was analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) from the perspective of spatial pattern distribution, the spatial distribution of non-agricultural pressure of cultivated land in China presents an obvious geographical gradient, and generally presents a decreasing trend from east to west. (2) from the point of view of the trend of time change, The change of non-agricultural pressure index of cultivated land in different regions and provinces showed a trend of diversification. The non-agricultural pressure index of cultivated land in the eastern coastal areas, Shandong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu is on the rise stage, the change trend of the pressure index in Shanghai and Fujian is gradually stable, and the pressure index in Guangdong is decreasing. In the central region, Henan, Hebei, Shanxi and Jiangxi provinces, the non-agricultural pressure index of cultivated land tends to stabilize, and the pressure index of Shaanxi, Hubei and southwest provinces such as Sichuan and Chongqing shows an upward trend. The non-agricultural pressure of cultivated land in the three provinces along the western border (Yunnan, Tibet, Xinjiang) showed a consistent downward trend. (3) from the combination of temporal and spatial patterns, the change trend of the provinces with different non-agricultural pressure of cultivated land showed a different trend. In the areas where the pressure of cultivated land non-agricultural transformation is greater, cultivated land non-agricultural transformation has experienced the stage from system driving to development. The inverted "U" type trajectory of economic growth is obvious, and the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land non-agricultural transformation is gradually decoupled. In the areas where the non-agricultural pressure of cultivated land is in the middle or small, the industrial development lags behind, the comparative income of land is low, the social security function of cultivated land and the ecological function have a great influence on the non-agricultural conversion of cultivated land, thus increasing the non-agricultural pressure of cultivated land in some provinces.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家自科基金(41371113;41101098) 国家社科基金(13CGL092)~~
【分类号】：F323.211

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