基于正态云信息扩散方法的水旱灾害风险评估模型——以徐州市为例

发布时间：2018-07-06 12:32

本文选题：信息扩散 + 云模型　；参考：《系统工程》2016年11期

【摘要】：由于自然灾害风险评估中存在案例样本稀少、信息难以获取等特点,为了降低各种不确定性因素影响,提高灾害风险评估的合理性和可靠性,建立基于正态云信息扩散方法的灾害风险评估模型,用一组云滴来反映灾害风险的超越概率。针对信息扩散原理中仅考虑模糊不确定的不足,综合考虑信息扩散过程中模糊性和随机性的关联性,用正态云扩散函数代替正态扩散函数,发展了模糊信息扩散方法。最后,结合1990~2012年徐州市农作物水旱受灾面积资料,将该模型应用于徐州市农业自然灾害风险评估,计算结果表明,徐州市农业水旱灾害风险趋势基本一致,干旱灾害的风险略大于洪涝灾害,农业受损程度主要集中在35%以内,受损程度在35%以上的可能性很小,这与徐州历史上水旱灾害发生的实际基本相符。
[Abstract]:In order to reduce the influence of various uncertain factors and improve the rationality and reliability of disaster risk assessment, because of the characteristics of rare sample and difficult to obtain information in natural disaster risk assessment, A disaster risk assessment model based on normal cloud information diffusion method is established and a set of cloud droplets is used to reflect the transcendental probability of disaster risk. Aiming at the deficiency of considering only fuzzy uncertainty in the principle of information diffusion, considering the relationship between fuzziness and randomness in the process of information diffusion, the normal cloud diffusion function is used to replace the normal diffusion function, and the fuzzy information diffusion method is developed. Finally, the model is applied to the risk assessment of agricultural natural disasters in Xuzhou City from 1990 to 2012. The calculated results show that the risk trend of agricultural flood and drought disasters in Xuzhou City is basically the same. The risk of drought disaster is slightly greater than that of flood disaster, and the degree of agricultural damage is mainly less than 35%, and the probability of damage degree is very small, which is basically consistent with the actual occurrence of flood and drought disaster in Xuzhou history.
【作者单位】：河海大学水利信息统计与管理研究所;江苏省"世界水谷"与水生态文明协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71303074) 江苏省社会科学基金资助项目(14GLC004) 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2015B23914) 河海大学常州校区研究生科技创新项目(XZX/14B001-07)
【分类号】：S42

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