闽东粮食产量气象风险评估与分析

发布时间：2018-07-10 10:34

本文选题：闽东 + 粮食产量　；参考：《中国农业资源与区划》2016年05期

【摘要】：加强粮食气象灾害风险的分析和评估工作,对农业种植结构调整、防灾减灾和可持续发展具有重要意义。文章采用1949~2013年闽东9县市区粮食产量资料,应用线性拟合方法计算出粮食气象产量增长率时间序列作为分析对象,通过经验正交分解(EOF)、线性倾向估计、概率分布函数拟合及检验、聚类分析等气候统计学方法,分析闽东粮食气象产量增长率空间与时间变化特点,减产率等级分布特征及风险区划。结果表明,闽东山区粮食增长率总体要高过沿海县市,增产趋势更明显些。粮食增长率的空间特征值与年平均气温、日照时数为显著负相关,山区与沿海的气候差异与粮食增长率密切相关。9县市粮食增长率具有斜"L"型年际变化特征,可分为下降、上升、缓降、持平等4个阶段。聚类分析表明闽东粮食具有显著增产、一般增产、一般减产和显著减产等4类年型,增产与减产年份发生概率分别为54.3%、45.7%。沿海县市轻、中度减产发生概率要大于山区县,而重度减产发生概率则相反,山区县减产风险普遍高于沿海县市区。闽东总体增产年份比减产年份略多,但减产年份发生概率也较大,农业气象灾害造成减产危害不可忽视,因此加强粮食生产的农业气象防灾减灾工作十分重要。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to strengthen the analysis and assessment of meteorological disaster risk for agricultural planting structure adjustment disaster prevention and mitigation and sustainable development. Based on the grain yield data of 9 counties in eastern Fujian from 1949 to 2013, the time series of grain meteorological yield growth rate was calculated by linear fitting method. The linear tendency was estimated by empirical orthogonal decomposition (EOF). The characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of meteorological yield growth rate of grain in eastern Fujian Province, the distribution characteristics of grade of yield reduction and risk zoning were analyzed by means of fitting and testing of probability distribution function, cluster analysis and other climatic statistical methods. The results showed that the grain growth rate in the mountain area of East Fujian was higher than that in the coastal county, and the trend of increasing production was more obvious. The spatial characteristic value of grain growth rate is negatively correlated with annual mean temperature and sunshine hours. The climate difference between mountainous area and coastal area is closely related to grain growth rate. The grain growth rate of county and city has the characteristics of oblique "L" type interannual variation, which can be classified as decreasing. Rise, slow down, flat and other four stages. Cluster analysis showed that the grain yield in East Fujian had four kinds of annual patterns, such as significant yield increase, general yield reduction and significant yield reduction, and the probability of increasing yield and reducing yield were 54.3ng and 45.7 respectively. The probability of light and moderate yield reduction in coastal counties is higher than that in mountain counties, while the probability of severe reduction is opposite. The risk of production reduction in mountain counties is generally higher than that in coastal counties and urban areas. In the east of Fujian, there are a little more years of increasing yield than those of years of reduction of production, but the probability of the year of reduction of production is also larger, and the harm caused by agricultural meteorological disasters can not be ignored. Therefore, it is very important to strengthen the work of preventing and reducing grain production.
【作者单位】：福建省宁德市气象局;
【基金】：福建省宁德市科技计划项目“宁德市主要农业气象灾害风险评估技术研究”(20130004)
【分类号】：S16;F326.11

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