1961—2010年气候变化对西南冬小麦潜在和雨养产量影响的模拟分析
发布时间：2018-08-22 13:46
【摘要】：利用农业气象试验站作物资料及土壤资料,评价APSIM-Wheat模型在西南地区的适应性,应用该模型分析该地区1961—2010年冬小麦潜在和雨养产量的时空变化特征,通过逐步回归分析揭示小麦生长季主要气象因子对潜在产量和雨养产量的影响及相对贡献率。研究结果表明:APSIM模型对该区5个常用小麦品种的模拟效果较好,模拟与实测生育期的均方根误差(RMSE)在7.0 d以内,地上部分生物量和产量模拟值与实测值的归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)均低于25%,模型在西南地区具有较好的适应性。1961—2010年研究区域36%的站点冬小麦生长季总辐射显著降低,其中北部、东南部和南部中区最显著;68%的站点生长季≥0℃有效积温显著增加,西部增温显著;30%的站点生长季平均气温日较差显著减小,南部中区最显著;全区生长季总降水大面积减少但不显著,减少区主要位于最南端和东南部。模拟的冬小麦潜在产量在65%的站点呈显著减产趋势,南部中区和北部变化最明显;雨养产量在25%的站点显著降低,北部地区较明显,全区减产趋势较弱。减产显著的站点中,生长季辐射降低、温度升高、气温日较差减小对潜在产量降低的贡献率分别为45%、36%和2%,对雨养产量降低的贡献率分别为36%、39%和-8%,而降水减少对雨养产量降低的贡献率为7%。西南冬小麦生长季辐射降低、温度升高及降水减少共同导致了冬小麦潜在和雨养产量的显著下降,而气温日较差的降低对冬小麦潜在和雨养产量的影响分别表现为负作用和正作用,整体上辐射和温度的影响程度最大。
[Abstract]:Based on crop data and soil data of agrometeorological test station, the adaptability of APSIM-Wheat model in southwest China was evaluated, and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of winter wheat potential and rain-fed yields in the region from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed. Through stepwise regression analysis, the effects of main meteorological factors on potential yield and rain-fed yield of wheat in growing season and their relative contribution rate were revealed. The results showed that the simulation of five wheat varieties in this area by using the WAPSIM model was better, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated and measured growth periods was within 7.0 days. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of the simulated biomass and yield values of aboveground parts and the measured values were lower than 25, and the model had a good adaptability in southwest China. The total radiation of winter wheat growing season decreased significantly in 36% of the stations in the study area from 1961 to 2010, especially in the northern part of the study area. In the southeastern and central regions, 68% of the stations had significant increase in the effective accumulated temperature of 鈮，
本文编号：2197284
[Abstract]:Based on crop data and soil data of agrometeorological test station, the adaptability of APSIM-Wheat model in southwest China was evaluated, and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of winter wheat potential and rain-fed yields in the region from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed. Through stepwise regression analysis, the effects of main meteorological factors on potential yield and rain-fed yield of wheat in growing season and their relative contribution rate were revealed. The results showed that the simulation of five wheat varieties in this area by using the WAPSIM model was better, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of simulated and measured growth periods was within 7.0 days. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of the simulated biomass and yield values of aboveground parts and the measured values were lower than 25, and the model had a good adaptability in southwest China. The total radiation of winter wheat growing season decreased significantly in 36% of the stations in the study area from 1961 to 2010, especially in the northern part of the study area. In the southeastern and central regions, 68% of the stations had significant increase in the effective accumulated temperature of 鈮，
本文编号：2197284
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