农业旱灾风险管理脆弱性评价及驱动因素分析

发布时间：2018-09-01 13:27

【摘要】：本文基于对农业旱灾脆弱性理论分析,从自然、经济、社会、科技四个维度设计农业旱灾脆弱性的评价指标体系和分级标准,运用BP神经网络法对重庆市2001-2015年农业旱灾脆弱性进行综合评价分析,并考察农业旱灾脆弱性程度的动态特征和驱动因素。研究结论表明:重庆农业旱灾脆弱性程度总体上呈减弱趋势,但是面临极端气象条件时依然表现为重度脆弱。在旱灾脆弱性的驱动因素中,经济发展水平和科技发展能力是驱动旱灾脆弱性下降的主要因素;农业的自然脆弱性和社会脆弱性水平较高,严重影响了脆弱性总水平的下降。因此,农业旱灾风险脆弱性管理需要继续强化经济脆弱性和科技脆弱性管理的同时,重点是做好农业旱灾风险的社会脆弱性管理。
[Abstract]:Based on the theoretical analysis of agricultural drought vulnerability, this paper designs the evaluation index system and grading standard of agricultural drought vulnerability from the four dimensions of nature, economy, society and science and technology. The BP neural network method was used to evaluate and analyze the vulnerability of agricultural drought in Chongqing from 2001 to 2015, and the dynamic characteristics and driving factors of the vulnerability of agricultural drought were investigated. The results show that the vulnerability of agricultural drought in Chongqing is weakening on the whole, but it is still severe in the face of extreme weather conditions. Among the driving factors of drought vulnerability, the level of economic development and the ability of scientific and technological development are the main factors driving the decline of drought vulnerability, while the natural vulnerability and social vulnerability of agriculture are relatively high, which seriously affects the decline of total vulnerability. Therefore, agricultural drought risk vulnerability management needs to continue to strengthen economic vulnerability and science and technology vulnerability management, the focus is to do a good job of agricultural drought risk social vulnerability management.
【作者单位】：西南大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：教育部规划项目“政府诱导型巨灾保险制度研究”(12YJA790149);项目负责人:谢家智国家社会科学基金重点项目“巨灾风险管理机制设计及路径选择研究”(12AGL008);项目负责人:谢家智
【分类号】：S423

【参考文献】