西南地区水稻洪涝灾害风险评估与区划

发布时间：2018-09-01 20:10

【摘要】：为全面评估水稻洪涝的综合风险,基于自然灾害系统理论和农业气象灾害风险评估方法,利用西南地区(重庆、四川、贵州和云南)193个气象站1961-2012年逐日降水资料、396个县(市)1981-2012年水稻产量、面积资料和17个农气站点水稻生育期数据,以及西南地区数字高程(DEM)数据,构建区域水稻洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、孕灾环境敏感性和区域抗灾能力指数,以及综合风险评价模型,对西南地区水稻洪涝进行风险分析与区划。结果表明:(1)水稻不同生育阶段洪涝等级风险概率分布存在明显的地区差异,洪涝危险性表现为移栽分蘖期拔节孕穗期抽穗成熟期;全生育期高、次高危险区主要分布于云南南部和东北部、贵州南部,以及四川的成都、眉山和德阳地区。(2)基于不同时间序列的水稻相对暴露率明显波动,水稻生产承灾体高、次高暴露区主要集中在四川东北部和重庆地区;孕灾环境高、次高敏感区主要位于云南北部、四川南部和贵州东南部地区;水稻洪涝低抗灾能力区主要位于贵州。(3)西南地区水稻洪涝综合风险呈由中部向四周递增的趋势,高、次高风险区主要位于贵州南部、云南南部和四川东北部地区,低风险区位于重庆南部和云南北部地区。
[Abstract]:In order to comprehensively assess the comprehensive risk of rice flooding, based on the natural disaster system theory and agrometeorological disaster risk assessment method, the southwest region (Chongqing, Sichuan, Sichuan, China) is utilized. Guizhou and Yunnan) the daily precipitation data of 193 meteorological stations for 1961-2012 cover 396 counties (cities) with rice yield, area data, rice growth period data from 17 agricultural gas stations, and digital elevation (DEM) data from southwest China. The risk analysis and regionalization of rice flood in southwest China were carried out by constructing the risk factors of regional rice flood hazard, the exposure of disaster bearing bodies, the sensitivity of disaster environment and the index of regional disaster resistance, as well as the comprehensive risk assessment model. The results showed that: (1) there were significant regional differences in the probability distribution of flood and waterlogging grade risk in different growth stages of rice, and the risk of flooding was as follows: heading and maturing stage at jointing and booting stage of transplanting and tillering stage, and high in whole growth stage. The sub-high risk areas are mainly distributed in southern and northeast Yunnan, southern Guizhou, and Chengdu, Meishan and Deyang areas in Sichuan. (2) the relative exposure rate of rice based on different time series fluctuates obviously, and the rice yield is high. The secondary high exposure areas were mainly located in northeast Sichuan and Chongqing, and the secondary sensitive areas were mainly located in northern Yunnan, southern Sichuan and southeast Guizhou. Rice flood and waterlogging resistance areas are mainly located in Guizhou. (3) the comprehensive risk of rice flooding in southwest China is increasing from the central part to the surrounding area, and the secondary high risk area is mainly located in the south of Guizhou, southern Yunnan and northeast Sichuan. Low risk areas are located in southern Chongqing and northern Yunnan.
【作者单位】：中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;
【基金】：基本科研业务费专项基金(2015Y003) “十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD20B02)
【分类号】：S511;S422

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