中国南方干旱灾害风险特征及其防控对策

发布时间：2018-09-11 13:43

【摘要】：应用中国南方区域14省区市252个国家基本气象站1961—2015年逐日地面气象观测资料及干旱灾害资料,研究中国南方干旱灾害影响的时空变化特征,分析中国南方干旱灾害风险变化特征,提出干旱灾害风险防控策略与防御对策。结果表明:近55年中国南方区域降水量呈现波动变化,降水量线性拟合趋势特征不明显。但进入21世纪后南方区域平均降水量明显偏少,且平均降水量年际振荡幅度增大。近55年研究区气温呈显著上升趋势,南方平均地表气温升高速率高于全球地表升温速率;研究区气温从1976年开始持续上升,气温升高的突变年在1997年。重旱风险高发区主要集中于西南,随着气候变暖,干旱灾害频率、强度和受旱面积均增加,干旱灾害风险增大。气温突变后次高干旱灾害风险区明显扩大。未来10年(2016—2025年)中国南方地区的干旱发生频率可能升高。因此,要加强干旱灾害风险管理,生态环境脆弱区域实施生态环境修复,农业主产区域以保障粮食安全为主,解决水资源时空分布不均和资源供需加剧矛盾,提高干旱灾害风险防控水平。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily surface meteorological observation data and drought disaster data of 252 national basic meteorological stations in 14 provinces, autonomous regions and cities of southern China from 1961 to 2015, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought disasters in southern China are studied. This paper analyzes the characteristics of drought disaster risk change in southern China, and puts forward the prevention and control strategy and defense strategy of drought disaster risk. The results show that the precipitation in southern China has fluctuated in recent 55 years, and the linear fitting trend of precipitation is not obvious. However, in the 21st century, the average precipitation in the southern region is obviously less, and the amplitude of annual oscillation of the average precipitation increases. In the recent 55 years, the temperature in the study area showed a significant upward trend, and the average surface temperature in the south was higher than that in the global surface temperature, and the temperature in the study area continued to rise since 1976, and the abrupt year of the temperature rise was in 1997. The high risk area of severe drought is mainly concentrated in southwest China. With the climate warming, the frequency, intensity and area of drought disaster increase, and the risk of drought disaster increases. After the sudden change of temperature, the risk area of secondary high drought disaster obviously expanded. The frequency of drought in southern China is likely to increase over the next decade (2016-2025). Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the risk management of drought disaster, implement ecological environment restoration in the region with fragile ecological environment, give priority to ensuring food security in the main agricultural production areas, and solve the contradiction between the uneven distribution of water resources in time and space and the increasing supply and demand of resources. Improve the level of drought disaster risk prevention and control.
【作者单位】：中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室;甘肃省定西市气象局;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430206) 公益性行业(气象)科研重大专项(GYHY201506001-6) 国家自然科学基金(41575149)
【分类号】：S423

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