气候变化下我国主要粮食作物种植环境适应性研究

发布时间：2018-09-15 19:34

【摘要】：面对气候变化给各类生态系统造成的风险,积极应对和适应气候变化显得尤为重要。农业作为严重依赖于自然资源的生产活动,容易受到气候变化的冲击,表现出脆弱性和易损性,所以农业生产适应气候变化迫在眉睫。小麦、玉米和水稻作为主要的粮食作物,对农业稳产和人类生计安全至关重要,确保三大粮食作物在气候变化下种植适宜区分布的稳定,是农业生产较好适应气候变化的关键。论文在评估60多年来热量、水分和越冬条件等农业水热资源时空变化趋势的基础上,考虑小麦、玉米和水稻生长对光热水需求的差异,分别确定影响三种作物生长的气候指标,并将土壤和海拔分布作为地表限制因子一并作为Max Ent模型的环境变量,三种作物的农业观测站位置信息作为物种变量,分别模拟春小麦和冬小麦、春玉米和夏玉米、单季稻和双季稻适生区的时空分布,利用空间叠加得到小麦、玉米和水稻适生区在农区和海拔上的时空分异,以及三种作物种植环境适应气候变化能力的时空分异。在此基础上将三种作物适生区进行空间叠加得到主要粮食作物种植适生区的时空变化,分析主要粮食作物种植环境适应气候变化的能力。论文得到以下结论:(1)60多年来农业气候资源的变化方向与变化趋势存在区域差异:自南向北日照时数低值区在侵占高值区,全国多数区域日照时数呈现下降趋势。年平均气温、0℃积温及持续天数、最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温等值线均在不同程度上向北移动,但最热月平均气温等值线在淮河流域南退,使得黄河中下游和江淮地区最热月平均气温多为下降趋势;全国80%以上区域初霜日推后、终霜日提前造成无霜期延长;400mm等降水量线的东段向东北移动,北方和南方地区降水分别表现为下降和上升趋势,但是南方降水天数在减少。(2)60多年来小麦、玉米种植环境适应气候变化的能力在北方和南方农区分别升高和下降,而水稻在北方和南方农区则是分别下降和升高。换言之,小麦种植环境适宜等级在内蒙古及长城沿线区、黄土高原区和黄淮海区等升高,在西南区、长江中下游区、华南区和甘新区等下降;玉米种植环境适宜等级在东北区、内蒙古及长城沿线区、黄土高原区和黄淮海区升高,在西南区、长江中下游区和华南区基本在下降。(3)60年来小麦、玉米和水稻种植环境适应气候变化的能力在海拔上存在时空分异:小麦种植适宜等级在第一阶梯上升高,在第二和第三阶梯上下降,玉米种植适宜等级变化方向在第一阶梯上存在区域差异,在第二阶梯上适宜等级升高,水稻种植适宜等级在第一和第二阶梯上分别下降和升高,故小麦、玉米和水稻种植环境适应气候变化的能力在第一阶梯上分别是升高、多方向性和下降,在第二阶梯上依次是下降、升高和升高。(4)近30年来小麦、玉米和水稻种植环境适应气候变化的能力大多随年代波动。在农区上,除华南区水稻种植环境适应气候变化的能力提高,其余农区小麦和水稻种植环境的适应能力多随年代波动。玉米种植环境适应气候变化的能力在东北区升高,在内蒙古及长城沿线区和黄淮海区下降,在其余农区多处于波动中;在海拔上,第一阶梯上的小麦和玉米、第二阶梯上的小麦和水稻适应气候变化的能力基本在随年代波动,不过第一阶梯上水稻和第二阶梯上玉米种植不适宜区逐渐扩大,致使二者种植环境适应气候变化的能力下降。(5)60年来主要粮食作物种植环境适应气候变化的能力在农区和省区上均存在时空分异。在农区上,东北区、黄淮海区和长江中下游区主要粮食作物种植环境适应气候变化的能力在下降,其余农区多是上升;在省区上,主要粮食作物种植适宜等级在黑龙江、山东、江西、湖南、广东和广西等省份有所下降,在吉林、辽宁、内蒙古和新疆自治区、河南、湖北、安徽和江苏等省份有所上升。故主要粮食作物种植环境适应气候变化的能力在北方省份多上升,在南方省份多下降。论文的主要贡献在于发现了中国近60年来主要气温等值线均向北有所迁移,无霜期逐渐延长,但关键等降水量线比较稳定等,模拟出气候变化下春小麦和冬小麦、春玉米和夏玉米、单季稻和双季稻适生区,耦合生态学模型和地理学空间分析方法丰富了气候变化科学中农业适应性的研究方法。
[Abstract]:Facing the risk of climate change to all kinds of ecosystems, it is very important to actively cope with and adapt to climate change. Agriculture, as a production activity heavily dependent on natural resources, is vulnerable to the impact of climate change, showing vulnerability and vulnerability, so it is urgent for agricultural production to adapt to climate change. As a major grain crop, it is very important for the stability of agricultural production and the safety of human livelihood. It is the key for agricultural production to adapt to climate change to ensure the stability of the distribution of the three major grain crops in suitable areas under climate change. Considering the difference of photothermal and hydrothermal demand of wheat, maize and rice growth, the climatic indices affecting the growth of three crops were determined, and the soil and elevation distributions were taken as the environmental variables of the Max Ent model as well as the location information of agricultural observation stations for the three crops as species variables. The spatial and temporal distribution of the suitable zones of winter wheat, spring maize and summer maize, single cropping rice and double cropping rice, the spatial and temporal differences of the suitable zones of wheat, maize and rice in the agricultural areas and elevation, and the spatial and temporal differences of the adaptability of the three cropping environments to climate change were obtained by spatial superposition. The paper draws the following conclusions: (1) There are regional differences in the changing direction and trend of Agroclimatic Resources in the past 60 years: the low value area of sunshine hours from south to North occupies the high value area, and most of the regions in China are daily. The average annual temperature, accumulated temperature at 0 C and continuous days, the coldest monthly mean temperature and the annual extreme minimum temperature isoline all moved northward in varying degrees, but the hottest monthly mean temperature isoline retreated southward in the Huaihe River basin, which made the hottest monthly mean temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Yangtze and Huaihe River areas mostly descend. The first frost days were delayed and the last frost days were delayed, which resulted in the extension of the frost-free period. The eastern section of the 400 mm isoprecipitation line moved northeastward, while the precipitation in the north and South showed a downward and upward trend, respectively. However, the precipitation days in the South were decreasing. (2) For more than 60 years, the ability of maize planting environment to adapt to climate change was in the northern and Southern agricultural areas. In other words, the suitable level of wheat planting environment in Inner Mongolia and along the Great Wall, the Loess Plateau and the Huanghuai Sea increased, while in the southwest, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China and Ganxin decreased. In the southwest, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China are basically declining. (3) In the past 60 years, the adaptability of wheat, maize and rice planting environment to climate change varies spatially and spatially: the suitable level of wheat planting rises in the first step, and rises in the second and third steps. There are regional differences on the first ladder in the direction of change of suitable grades for maize planting. On the second ladder, the suitable grades for rice planting are higher and lower respectively on the first and second ladders. Therefore, the ability of wheat, maize and rice planting to adapt to climate change is higher on the first ladder. (4) In the past 30 years, the adaptability of wheat, maize and rice planting environment to climate change fluctuated with the years. In the agricultural areas, except South China, the adaptability of rice planting environment to climate change increased, the adaptability of wheat and rice planting environment in other agricultural areas increased. The ability of maize planting environment to adapt to climate change increased in Northeast China, decreased in Inner Mongolia and along the Great Wall and Huanghuai Sea, and fluctuated in other agricultural areas. At elevation, the ability of wheat and maize on the first step and wheat and rice on the second step to adapt to climate change basically fluctuated with the times. However, the inappropriate areas for rice and maize planting on the first and second steps gradually expanded, resulting in a decline in their ability to adapt to climate change. In the middle and lower reaches of the region, the ability of the main grain crops to adapt to climate change is declining, while the rest of the agricultural areas are rising; in the provincial areas, the suitable level of the main grain crops is declining in Heilongjiang, Shandong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, while in Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Henan, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces. The main contribution of this paper is to find that the main temperature contours in China have moved northward in the past 60 years, and the frost-free period has been gradually extended, but the critical isoprecipitation line is relatively stable. The suitable areas for spring wheat and winter wheat, spring maize and summer maize, single cropping rice and double cropping rice under climate change, coupled ecological models and geographic spatial analysis methods enrich the research methods of agricultural adaptability in climate change science.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S162.5

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