广东省晚稻干旱灾害评估及其特征分析

发布时间：2018-10-15 06:55

【摘要】：根据广东晚稻产量及生育期资料,采用逐日气象干旱指数DI计算各个生育期干旱指数,建立了晚稻干旱灾害评估模型并分析其时空特征。结果表明:1 1981-2010年广东省平均晚稻干旱年频率为14 a一遇,减产率为0.7%,以轻旱为主。干旱主要发生在晚稻抽穗-乳熟期。2晚稻干旱频率及减产率均呈北高南低分布,旱灾高发区集中在西北部,频率为4~7 a一遇,减产率为1%左右。3近30 a广东省晚稻干旱灾害总体减弱但不显著,其中东南部干旱灾害趋于增强,其它地区均趋于减弱。4气候变暖后,晚稻全生育期、抽穗-乳熟期的干旱致灾频率和减产率呈减小趋势。由此可见,广东省晚稻干旱灾害的关键时期是抽穗-乳熟期,重点关注区域是西北部地区。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of yield and growth period of late rice in Guangdong Province, the drought index of each growing period was calculated by daily meteorological drought index (DI), and the evaluation model of drought disaster of late rice was established and its spatial and temporal characteristics were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) the average annual drought frequency of late rice in Guangdong Province from 1981 to 2010 was 14 years, and the yield reduction rate was 0.7%, mainly light drought. Drought occurred mainly in late rice heading and milking stage. 2 the drought frequency and yield reduction rate of late rice were both high in the north and low in the south, and the high incidence area of drought was concentrated in the northwest with a frequency of 4 ~ 7 years. The yield reduction rate was about 1%. 3 the drought disaster of late rice in Guangdong Province was generally weakened but not significant in recent 30 years. The drought disaster in southeastern China tended to increase, and that in other regions tended to weaken. 4 after climate warming, the whole growth period of late rice was decreased. The frequency of drought disaster and the rate of yield reduction decreased in heading-milk stage. It can be seen that the key period of drought disaster of late rice in Guangdong Province is heading-milking stage, and the focus area is northwest area.
【作者单位】：广东省气候中心;广东省生态气象中心;中山大学大气科学系;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2013CB430200,2013CB430206) 干旱气象科学研究基金资助项目(IAM201303) 广东省气象局科研资助项目(2015B14)
【分类号】：S511.33;S423

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