气候变化背景下胶州湾地区农业生态系统的脆弱性研究

发布时间：2018-10-20 14:49

【摘要】：我国气候变化复杂多样,既具有大尺度上的时空一致性,又有不同时段或区域的异质性,加上极端气候事件呈增多趋势,正强烈影响着海岸带地区社会经济各方面,海岸带地区已成为全球气候变化影响研究的热点区域之一。我国是一个农业大国,在全球变暖、极端事件增多的大背景下,针对我国海岸带农业生态系统的脆弱性进行研究,既是实现海岸带地区社会经济可持续发展的科学基础,也是海岸带地区有效应对气候变化,制定气候变化适应对策和举措的行动基础。胶州湾是我国北方沿海的典型代表,是中纬度海岸带海洋性气候最强的地区。改革开放以来,胶州湾沿海地区经济发展迅速,但该区域的“三农”比重仍比较大,气候变化及极端气候事件,特别是干旱成为胶州湾地区农业生态系统面临的重要挑战和威胁之一。本研究选取胶州湾地区的农业生态系统作为研究对象,综合考虑人类社会和自然生态环境的相互作用,从胶州湾地区农业生态系统对气候变化的暴露度、敏感性及适应能力三方面,构建胶州湾地区农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评价指标体系,综合评价胶州湾地区农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性,认识海岸带地区农业生态系统气候脆弱性的时空变化,为海岸带地区减缓气候变化对农业生产不利影响,制定切实可行的适应举措,保障海岸带地区社会经济的健康发展提供参考。本研究选取了胶州湾地区气候、农业生产、经济、社会、人口等14个相关指标建立了胶州湾地区农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评价指标体系,根据胶州湾地区社会经济发展趋势及未来发展规划,构建了该地区未来的社会、经济、人口及耕地等的变化情景,结合区域气候模式对该地区未来气候变化的预估,运用Arc-GIS中的自然分割方法将基础数据无量纲化分级处理,采用层次分析方法确定各指标对应的权重,最后,运用加权综合评价法对胶州湾地区农业生态系统过去30年(1981~2010年)和未来30年(2021~2050年)的气候脆弱性进行评价,分析过去和未来该地区农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性的空间分布及其变化特征。主要结论如下:(1)过去30年胶州湾地区的农业生态系统对气候变化的暴露度在空间分布上大体呈中间地区暴露度高,两边地区暴露度低;敏感性最高的是平度市,敏感性最低的是青岛市区;适应能力最强的是青岛市,而莱西市的适应能力最差。过去30年胶州湾地区的农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性在空间分布上大体呈西北部高,东南沿海地区低。脆弱性的高值区出现在平度市西北边界,低值区分别位于胶南市西南端、青岛市的黄岛区和市北区、即墨市东端。(2)未来胶州湾地区的农业生态系统对气候变化的暴露度在空间分布上呈东(3)北向西南逐渐减小,暴露度高值中心位于莱西市,低值中心平度市;胶州湾地区的农业生态系统对气候变化的敏感性在空间上大体呈西北部高东南沿海地区低,敏感性最高的地区位于平度市,青岛市和胶南市的敏感性较低;胶州湾地区的农业生态系统对气候变化的适应能力最强的是平度市,最弱的是胶南市。未来胶州湾地区的农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性大体呈东北部高向西南部低。脆弱度的高值中心位于莱西市,低值区分别分布于青岛市、胶南市西南部和平度市北部地区。(4)受气候变化影响,未来平度市和莱西市农业生态系统对气候变化的暴露度增加;研究区农业生态系统对气候变化的敏感性空间变化不大;而适应能力的空间分布则会发生较大改变。其中,对暴露度影响最大的是水热综合指数的空间分布变化,而导致适应能力发生变化的主要原因是农民纯收入的变化。未来莱西市的农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱度将增加,而平度市农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱度则有所减低。(4)对比分析胶州湾地区农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性分布的时空变化特征,结果发现未来莱西市将为胶州湾最为脆弱的地区,期望政府能重点关注莱西市的农业发展,特别注意保障该市的灌溉用水,提高水资源利用效率,减缓干旱对农业生态系统的不利影响。
[Abstract]:China's climate change is complex and diverse, with both the temporal and spatial consistency of large scale, the heterogeneity of different time periods or regions, and the increasing trend of extreme weather events, which is strongly influencing the social and economic aspects of coastal zone. Coastal zone has become one of the hot spots of global climate change. China is a big agricultural country. Under the background of global warming and extreme events, it is not only the scientific basis for realizing the sustainable development of social economy in coastal zone, but also the effect on climate change in coastal zone. Action on climate change adaptation responses and initiatives. Jiaozhou Bay is a typical representative of the northern coast of China, and is the most marine climate in middle latitude coastal zone. Since the reform and opening-up, the coastal areas of Jiaozhou Bay have developed rapidly, but the region's" Agriculture, Countryside and Countryside "The specific gravity is still relatively large, climate change and extreme weather events, especially drought become one of the important challenges and threats to the agricultural ecosystem in Jiaozhou Bay area. The research chooses the agricultural ecosystem in Jiaozhou Bay as the research object, considering the interaction of human society and natural ecological environment, and from the three aspects of the exposure degree, sensitivity and adaptability of agricultural ecosystem in Jiaozhou Bay area to climate change. The paper constructs the index system of vulnerability of agricultural ecosystem in Jiaozhou Bay region to climate change, comprehensively evaluates the vulnerability of agricultural ecosystem to climate change in Jiaozhou Bay, and recognizes the spatial and temporal change of climate vulnerability of agricultural ecosystem in coastal zone. To mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production in coastal zone, practical adaptation measures are developed to guarantee the healthy development of social and economic development in coastal zone. In this study, we selected 14 indicators related to climate, agricultural production, economy, society and population in Jiaozhou Bay, and established an index system for evaluating the vulnerability of agricultural ecosystem to climate change in Jiaozhou Bay. The future social, economic, demographic and cultivated land change scenarios of the region are constructed, and the future climate change prediction of the region is estimated by combining the regional climate model, and the basic data dimensionless classification processing is carried out by using the natural segmentation method in the Arc-GIS. In the last 30 years (1981 ~ 2010) and the next 30 years (2021 ~ 2050), the climate vulnerability of the agricultural ecosystem in Jiaozhou Bay was evaluated by using the weighted comprehensive evaluation method. The spatial distribution and its characteristics of the vulnerability of agricultural ecosystems to climate change in the past and in the future are analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The degree of exposure of agricultural ecosystem to climate change in Jiaozhou Bay area in the last 30 years is generally high in the middle part of the space distribution, and the exposure degree of two sides is low; the highest sensitivity is Pingdu City, and the lowest sensitivity is the downtown of Qingdao; The most adaptive is Qingdao, while the adaptability of the city is the worst. In the past 30 years, the vulnerability of agricultural ecosystem to climate change in Jiaozhou Bay area is generally northwest high in spatial distribution and low in southeast coastal area. The high value area of vulnerability lies in the north-west boundary of Pingdu City, and the low-value area is located at the southwest end of Jiaozhou District, Huangdao District and Shibei District of Qingdao, namely, the east end of Mo. (2) The exposure of agricultural ecosystem to climate change in Jiaozhou Bay area in the future gradually decreases in the east (3) north to southwest in the spatial distribution, and the high value center of exposure is located in Pingdu City, Laxi city and low value center; The sensitivity of agricultural ecosystem to climate change in Jiaozhou Bay area is generally low and sensitive to climate change, which is located in Pingdu City, and the sensitivity of Qingdao and Jiaozhou District is low. The agricultural ecosystem in Jiaozhou Bay is the most adaptive to climate change. The vulnerability of agricultural ecosystem to climate change in Jiaozhou Bay area in the future is generally high in the north-east and low in the southwest. The high value center of vulnerability lies in Leixi City, and the low value area is distributed in Qingdao, the southwest of Jiaozhou District and the northern part of Pingdu City respectively. (4) The exposure of agricultural ecosystems to climate change will be increased in the future in the future, and the spatial distribution of adaptive capacity will change significantly due to the effects of climate change. Among them, the influence of the exposure degree is the spatial distribution of the water thermal comprehensive index, and the main reason for the change of the adaptive capacity is the change of the farmer's net income. The vulnerability of agricultural ecosystems to climate change will be increased in the future, while the vulnerability of agricultural ecosystems to climate change in Pingdu is reduced. (4) To compare the spatial and temporal changes of the vulnerability of agricultural ecosystem to climate change in Jiaozhou Bay, and find that in the future, Leixi City will be the most vulnerable region of Jiaozhou Bay, and it is expected that the government can focus on the agricultural development of Laxi city. Special attention is paid to ensuring the use of irrigation water in the city, improving water utilization efficiency and mitigating the adverse effects of drought on agricultural ecosystems.
【学位授予单位】：安徽农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S181

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