基于SPEI和SPI指数的青海省东部农业区春夏气象干旱特征的评估

发布时间：2018-10-30 16:38

【摘要】：青海省东部农业区是青海省重要的粮食生产基地,春夏干旱直接影响着该区农业的有序发展。论文选取青海省东部农业区13个气象站点1961—2014年平均月降水和气温数据,采用泰森多边形法、SPEI和SPI指数、R/S分析等方法对比评估了该区的春夏气象干旱演变特征。研究表明:1)近54 a SPEI和SPI指数显示青海省东部农业区干旱年际变化在2000年代前基本一致,2000年代后变化趋势发生变化;SPEI指数显示2000年代后春夏旱逐渐加重,SPI指数显示2000年代后春旱逐渐缓解该区干旱,气温是导致两者产生差异的主要原因。2)该区干旱面积覆盖率与干旱年际变化规律保持一致,两种指数主要在1990年代中期前后有所不同,1990年代中期后SPEI指数显示的春夏干旱覆盖面积要比SPI指数显示的广。3)SPEI和SPI指数在2000年代后春夏干旱频率呈相反趋势,SPEI指数显示的2000年代为干旱高频期,SPI指数为干旱低频期;两种指数均显示春旱高频区由西部转向东部地区,夏旱高频区由西北转向东南地区。4)根据干旱周期及R/S分析法,未来4~6 a该区春旱加重,北部地区为春旱高发区;未来18~22 a夏旱也有所加重,西部和东部地区为夏旱高发区。5)通过对比分析发现,SPEI指数在该区的适用性较好,能为该区干旱监测提供较为科学的理论依据。
[Abstract]:The eastern agricultural region of Qinghai Province is an important grain production base in Qinghai Province. The drought in spring and summer directly affects the orderly development of agriculture in this area. In this paper, the average monthly precipitation and temperature data of 13 meteorological stations in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2014 are selected, and the evolution characteristics of meteorological drought in spring and summer in this area are compared and evaluated by the methods of Tyson polygon method, SPEI and SPI index, and R / S analysis. The results showed that: 1) the SPEI and SPI indices of recent 54 years showed that the interannual variation of drought in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai Province was basically the same before the 2000s, and the trend of the change took place after the 2000s; The SPEI index showed that the drought in spring and summer gradually increased after 2000s, and the SPI index showed that the drought gradually alleviated in this area after 2000s. Air temperature is the main cause of the difference. 2) the coverage rate of arid area in this area is consistent with the regularity of interannual drought variation, and the two indexes are different mainly before and after the mid-1990s. After the mid-1990s, the SPEI index showed a wider drought coverage in spring and summer than the SPI index. 3) the SPEI and SPI indices showed the opposite trend in the spring and summer drought frequency after the 2000s, and the SPEI index showed a high drought frequency period in the 2000s. SPI index is low frequency period of drought; Both indices show that the high frequency region of spring drought changes from the west to the east, and the high frequency region of summer drought from the northwest to the southeast. 4) according to the drought cycle and the R- S analysis, the spring drought in this area will worsen in the next 4 ~ 6 years, and the northern region will be a high spring drought area. In the future, the summer drought will also be aggravated in 1822 years, and the west and east regions will be the high summer drought areas. 5) through comparative analysis, it is found that the SPEI index is suitable for drought monitoring in this area and can provide a scientific theoretical basis for drought monitoring in this area.
【作者单位】：西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41561024) 高校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20136203110002)~~
【分类号】：S423

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