四川冬小麦产量对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究
发布时间：2018-11-25 16:18
【摘要】：论文以四川冬小麦种植区1981—2012年88个县的气象观测数据和冬小麦生产数据为基础,采用一元线性回归和逐步回归等方法,评价四川冬小麦产量对单个气候因子及气候变化的敏感性与脆弱性。结果显示:假设冬小麦生育期内平均气温和日较差升高1℃、降水量下降100 mm、辐射量下降100 MJ/m~2,冬小麦的产量随之发生变化,全生育期降水量下降导致产量敏感的面积最大,占整个研究区域播种总面积的6.5%;而辐射量下降使产量脆弱的面积最大,为2.4%。从各个生育阶段来看,研究区域内冬小麦产量对播种到拔节期辐射量下降表现为敏感和脆弱的面积比例最大,分别占9.4%和7.9%。受到4种气候因子变化的综合影响,产量对冬小麦生育期内气候变化表现为敏感的面积占播种总面积的40.0%,在7个冬麦区均有分布,产量变化为-23.0%~9.5%;产量脆弱的面积占14.0%,主要分布在川西北高原大部及盆西、盆南和川西南的部分区域。
[Abstract]:Based on meteorological observation data and winter wheat production data from 88 counties in Sichuan winter wheat growing area from 1981 to 2012, this paper adopts linear regression method and stepwise regression method. To evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of winter wheat yield in Sichuan to individual climatic factors and climate change. The results showed that if the mean temperature and diurnal range of winter wheat were increased by 1 鈩，
本文编号：2356730
[Abstract]:Based on meteorological observation data and winter wheat production data from 88 counties in Sichuan winter wheat growing area from 1981 to 2012, this paper adopts linear regression method and stepwise regression method. To evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of winter wheat yield in Sichuan to individual climatic factors and climate change. The results showed that if the mean temperature and diurnal range of winter wheat were increased by 1 鈩，
本文编号：2356730
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