长江中游地区耕地资源数量与粮食生产关系的实证分析

发布时间：2018-11-26 19:14

【摘要】：文章以湖北省为例,对长江中游地区耕地资源数量与粮食生产的关系进行了深入分析。通过整理1978—2012年间湖北省耕地资源与粮食生产数据,运用Eviews计量软件对湖北省的耕地资源数量变化情况及其与粮食生产的相关性做了系统的研究。研究表明:1978—2012年,湖北省耕地资源总面积与人均耕地面积均呈直线递减趋势,其中耕地资源总面积年均减少0.35%,人均耕地资源面积年均减少0.71%;粮食总产量与粮食单产总体上都呈递增趋势,但是波动幅度较大,粮食供给仍然面临巨大挑战;粮食总产量年变化率与耕地面积和粮食播种面积相关,从长远来看,粮食单产对粮食产量的影响程度逐渐加深。耕地资源数量变化与粮食生产具有相关性且呈现出阶段性变化特征。
[Abstract]:Taking Hubei Province as an example, the relationship between cultivated land resources and grain production in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is analyzed. Based on the data of cultivated land resources and grain production in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2012, this paper makes a systematic study on the quantity change of cultivated land resources and its correlation with grain production in Hubei Province by using Eviews software. The results show that: from 1978 to 2012, the total area of cultivated land and the area of per capita cultivated land in Hubei Province showed a decreasing trend, in which the total area of cultivated land decreased by 0.35 per year, and the area of per capita cultivated land decreased by 0.71 per year; The total grain yield and grain per unit yield are increasing, but the fluctuation range is large, and the grain supply is still facing great challenges. The annual change rate of total grain yield is related to cultivated land area and grain sown area. In the long run the effect of grain yield per unit yield on grain yield is gradually deepening. The change of cultivated land resources is related to grain production and has the characteristics of periodic change.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(15BJY099) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-12-0868) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(2013PY017)
【分类号】：F326.11;F323.211

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