基于熵信息扩散理论的中国农业水旱灾害风险评估

发布时间：2018-12-12 23:27

【摘要】：农业水旱灾害是制约中国农业生产的重要因素。针对信息扩散理论模型存在的不足,论文构建了评估中国农业水旱灾害风险的熵信息扩散理论模型,依据1985—2013年数据资料,运用熵信息扩散理论模型对中国大陆30个省、市、自治区(重庆包含在四川中计算)的农业水旱灾害进行了风险评估,根据农业水旱灾害风险评估结果对中国农业水旱灾害风险进行了综合对比分析。评估和分析结果表明:中国面临着较大的农业水旱灾害风险压力;中国农业旱灾风险明显大于农业水灾风险;农业水旱灾害空间风险特征明显;农业水灾高中风险区域主要集中在长江中下游地区和东北地区,农业旱灾高风险区域主要集中在中国北部地区和东北地区,总体上看,中国农业水旱灾害的空间分布格局是南方地区易出现水灾,而北部地区易出现旱灾,东北地区面临水旱灾害重叠的双重压力。
[Abstract]:Agricultural flood and drought is an important factor restricting agricultural production in China. In view of the shortcomings of the information diffusion theory model, this paper constructs the entropy information diffusion theory model to evaluate the risk of agricultural flood and drought disasters in China. According to the data from 1985 to 2013, the entropy information diffusion theory model is applied to 30 provinces and cities in mainland China. The risk assessment of agricultural flood and drought disasters in Chongqing is carried out. According to the risk assessment results of agricultural flood and drought disasters in China, the risk of agricultural flood and drought disasters in China is compared and analyzed. The results of assessment and analysis show that: China is faced with great risk pressure of agricultural flood and drought, the risk of agricultural drought is obviously greater than that of agricultural flood, the spatial risk characteristics of agricultural flood and drought are obvious; The high school risk areas for agricultural floods are mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in the northeast, while the high risk areas for agricultural drought are mainly concentrated in the northern and northeast regions of China. Generally speaking, The spatial distribution pattern of agricultural flood and drought disasters in China is that the southern region is prone to floods, while the northern region is prone to drought, and the northeast region faces the double pressure of overlapping flood and drought disasters.
【作者单位】：北京交通大学中国产业安全研究中心;
【基金】：教育部专项资助项目(B09C1100020) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(B15JB00510)~~
【分类号】：S423

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