宿迁地区水稻暴雨洪涝灾害保险气象理赔指数开发

发布时间：2018-12-17 00:50

【摘要】：利用宿迁地区104个乡镇2003—2013年水稻产量资料和2008—2013年保险理赔资料,计算水稻遭受暴雨洪涝灾害的灾害损失率;在自定义暴雨洪涝灾害指数的基础上,分析水稻灾损率与暴雨洪涝灾害指数的相关关系,建立各水稻种植区的气象理赔指数面板随机效应模型。结果得出:宿迁地区水稻遭受暴雨洪涝灾害影响的平均灾损率为-1.83%,达到理赔标准的乡镇比率为37.5%;受暴雨洪涝灾害影响最重的是III区,其次是I区,VII区和II区位居第三,其他几个区相对较轻;暴雨洪涝灾害主要影响水稻的孕穗扬花期和灌浆成熟期,对孕穗扬花期以前的生育期影响较小;暴雨洪涝灾害指数对水稻遭受暴雨洪涝灾害影响有较好的指示意义,利用这一指数制作水稻在灾损率预报准确率较高,达到90%以上;利用气象理赔指数,能较好的预报和模拟宿迁地区水稻遭受暴雨洪涝灾害的灾损率分布,对降低理赔风险,减少理赔费用有较强的指导意义。
[Abstract]:The rice yield data of 104 towns in Suqian area from 2003 to 2013 and the insurance claim data from 2008 to 2013 were used to calculate the disaster loss rate of rice suffering from torrential rain and flood. On the basis of self-defined torrential rain flood disaster index, the correlation between rice disaster loss rate and rainstorm flood disaster index is analyzed, and the panel stochastic effect model of meteorological claim index in rice planting area is established. The results show that the average disaster loss rate of rice affected by torrential rain and flood in Suqian area is -1.83, and the ratio of villages and towns meeting the standard of compensation is 37.5; The III area was the most affected by the torrential rain flood, followed by the I region, the VII area and the II region were the third, and the other several areas were relatively light. Torrential rain and waterlogging mainly affected the flowering stage and grain filling maturity stage of rice, but had little effect on the growth period before booting and flowering stage. The torrential rain flood disaster index has a good indication meaning to the rice suffering from the rainstorm flood disaster. The forecast accuracy rate of rice disaster loss is higher by using this index, which reaches more than 90%. The application of meteorological claim index can forecast and simulate the disaster rate distribution of rice affected by torrential rain and waterlogging in Suqian area, which has a strong guiding significance to reduce the risk of claim settlement and the cost of claim settlement.
【作者单位】：宿迁市气象局;
【基金】：江苏省气象科研开放基金项目(K201010)
【分类号】：F842.66;S422;S511

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