长江中下游地区水稻高温热害分布规律研究
发布时间：2018-12-19 07:55
【摘要】：随着全球气候变暖,高温天气频发,高温热害对水稻的影响日益突出。长江中下游地区是我国水稻的主要产区之一,研究该地区的高温热害的发生规律为减轻热害威胁、减小经济损失有着重要的意义。本文根据长江中下游地区共104个气象站点1951年至2010年的气象资料,运用数理统计学与GIS技术分析了各地区高温热害发生的时空分布规律,构建高温事件概率模型模拟各地区高温天气的发生概率。主要研究内容和结论如下:1、分别以高温热害发生频次和高温强度为推算因子,用空间推算模型分析各地高温热害的空间分布,表明高海拔及近海地区灾害程度普遍较轻,高纬度相对较轻,江西和浙江的中西部热害最为严重,而6省中高温热害发生最轻的是江苏省。2、对近50年来高温热害的统计分析发现长江中下游地区高温热害有微弱增强的趋势。高温热害的频次及强度均呈先减小后增大的年代际变化特征。21世纪初10年热害平均频次达到最多3.21次/a,平均强度达到最大31℃/a。3、使用Mann-Kendall对各省历年的平均高温强度进行突变检测,结果表明安徽、江苏、浙江及湖北四个省份在2002年有突变现象发生。长江中下游地区在2002前年平均高温强度为20.56℃/a,而在2002年之后达到33.72℃/a,增幅超过50%。4、构建了以日序和单日高温强度为随机变量的二维联合分布函数来模拟高温事件在日序、单日高温强度上的发生概率。该模型通过显著水平0.001的可靠性检验,模拟效果较好。5、通过模型确定各个地区高温事件发生概率最大的日期、高温事件发生最集中10日的概率及其起始日期与终止日期,结果表明热害发生最频繁的时期在7月下旬,各地10日内高温事件发生的概率在14.33%~26.55%之间,平均概率为19.68%。6、提出高温风险值的指标来衡量各地在不同时段内受到高温热害的威胁程度。以单日高温发生概率最大的日序为中心,分别以10日、20日和30日三个日期区间考察各地的高温风险情况。结果表明浙江丽水、金华,江西吉安、贵溪,湖南衡阳、湖北巴东等地高温风险程度最大。同时结合不同日期区间内发生的概率,为不同风险等级的地区提出相应地应对高温热害的措施。
[Abstract]:With the global warming and high temperature weather, the effect of high temperature on rice is becoming more and more prominent. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is one of the main rice production areas in China. It is of great significance to study the occurrence law of high temperature heat damage in this area in order to reduce the threat of heat damage and reduce economic losses. Based on the meteorological data of 104 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1951 to 2010, the temporal and spatial distribution of high temperature heat damage in various regions is analyzed by using mathematical statistics and GIS technique. The probability model of high temperature events is built to simulate the occurrence probability of high temperature weather in different regions. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: 1. The spatial distribution of high temperature heat damage is analyzed by using the spatial prediction model with the frequency and intensity of high temperature heat damage as the calculating factors, respectively. The results show that the disaster degree of high altitude and offshore area is generally lighter. The higher latitudes are relatively light, with the central and western parts of Jiangxi and Zhejiang being the most seriously affected by heat, while the middle and high temperature damage in 6 provinces is the least serious in Jiangsu Province. The statistical analysis of high temperature heat damage in the last 50 years shows that the high temperature heat damage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has a weak tendency to increase. The frequency and intensity of heat damage at high temperature decreased first and then increased. The average frequency of heat damage reached 3.21 times / a and the average intensity reached 31 鈩，
本文编号：2386634
[Abstract]:With the global warming and high temperature weather, the effect of high temperature on rice is becoming more and more prominent. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is one of the main rice production areas in China. It is of great significance to study the occurrence law of high temperature heat damage in this area in order to reduce the threat of heat damage and reduce economic losses. Based on the meteorological data of 104 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1951 to 2010, the temporal and spatial distribution of high temperature heat damage in various regions is analyzed by using mathematical statistics and GIS technique. The probability model of high temperature events is built to simulate the occurrence probability of high temperature weather in different regions. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: 1. The spatial distribution of high temperature heat damage is analyzed by using the spatial prediction model with the frequency and intensity of high temperature heat damage as the calculating factors, respectively. The results show that the disaster degree of high altitude and offshore area is generally lighter. The higher latitudes are relatively light, with the central and western parts of Jiangxi and Zhejiang being the most seriously affected by heat, while the middle and high temperature damage in 6 provinces is the least serious in Jiangsu Province. The statistical analysis of high temperature heat damage in the last 50 years shows that the high temperature heat damage in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has a weak tendency to increase. The frequency and intensity of heat damage at high temperature decreased first and then increased. The average frequency of heat damage reached 3.21 times / a and the average intensity reached 31 鈩，
本文编号：2386634
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